Chief Economists’ Outlook

The global economic outlook is stabilizing as of September 2026, with 56% of surveyed chief economists expecting conditions to remain unchanged or strengthen. While geopolitical conflicts and asset price corrections are primary sources of uncertainty, artificial intelligence is a major driver of optimism, with 97% expecting increased adoption. However, cost-of-living pressures are intensifying, particularly for food, electricity, and transport. Geoeconomic fragmentation is expected to deepen, though global trade volumes are projected to rise. Regional growth is uneven, with India and South-East Asia showing the strongest prospects, while Europe remains the weakest region.

• The global economic outlook is stabilizing, with 56% of surveyed chief economists anticipating an unchanged or stronger outlook over the next 12 months, a significant shift from May 2026 when 89% expected conditions to weaken.
• Geopolitical conflicts are the primary source of global economic uncertainty, cited by 97% of respondents, followed by asset price corrections at 58%.
• While fiscal support was the leading source of resilience since 2020 (69%), it is expected to play a much smaller role in future resilience (28%) due to constrained public finances. Future resilience is expected to rely more on flexible supply chains (78%), technological innovation (67%), and energy market adaptation (61%).
• Artificial intelligence is a dominant source of optimism, with 97% of respondents expecting increased adoption and 69% expecting meaningful productivity gains within the next year. Most respondents (69%) believe Chinese large language models (LLMs) will fully catch up to US counterparts within 12 months.
• Data centre expansion is expected to drive global growth (78%) but faces significant community pushback (79%) due to concerns over electricity and water prices. Only 39% of respondents expect this investment to drive significant global job creation.
• Global investment is expected to increase across nuclear power (83%), renewables (80%), and fossil fuels (70%).
• Cost-of-living pressures are intensifying, with majority expectations of price increases for food (88%), electricity (83%), and transport (77%). Real household incomes are expected to decline or remain unchanged in most regions, except for India and South-East Asia.
• Geoeconomic fragmentation is expected to increase (77%), yet global trade volumes are projected to rise by two-thirds of respondents. Chinese exports to markets outside the US are expected to increase by 83%.
• Regional growth prospects are uneven: India (74%) and South-East Asia (73%) have the strongest outlooks, while Europe is the weakest, with 61% expecting weak or very weak growth.
• The US and China are perceived as the most resilient geographies, with 74% of respondents rating their capacity to withstand future shocks as high or very high.

APA

World Economic Forum (2026). Chief Economists’ Outlook. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2026.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists’ Outlook. 2026. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists’ Outlook |date=September 2026 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2026.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2026chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists’ Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2026}, month = sep, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }