Chief Economists Outlook

The May 2025 Chief Economists Outlook reports a darkening global economic outlook driven by unprecedented trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. While US trade tariffs have caused significant market volatility, a temporary 90-day pause has provided some relief. Concurrently, artificial intelligence is viewed as a long-term growth driver through automation and innovation, though it poses risks to employment and market concentration. Regional analyses show varying degrees of resilience, with South Asia remaining optimistic while North America and Latin America face significant headwinds from US policy shifts.

• There is a unanimous consensus among surveyed chief economists that the global economic outlook is set to weaken considerably in 2025, with 79% viewing recent US policy changes as a "long-term structural shift" rather than a temporary disruption.
• US trade policy has introduced extreme volatility, including a baseline 10% import tariff on most global goods announced on 2 April 2025. Although most tariffs were paused for 90 days, bilateral tariffs between the US and China reached as high as 145% before a partial reduction of 115 percentage points was agreed upon on 12 May 2025.
• Trade-related uncertainty is at its highest level since records began in 1960, surpassing peaks from the COVID-19 pandemic. This uncertainty is expected to lead to higher inflation (77% of respondents) and a contraction or stagnation of global trade volumes (89%).
• Geopolitical tensions are driving a surge in global military spending, with the US announcing a defence budget exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. This shift is contributing to debt sustainability concerns in both advanced and developing economies, with 74% of respondents identifying it as a growing concern for both.
• Artificial Intelligence is projected to provide a cumulative boost to global GDP over the next decade, with 46% of economists expecting a 0-5 percentage point increase and 35% expecting 5-10 percentage points. The primary growth channels are the automation of tasks (68%) and faster innovation (62%).
• The impact of AI on the labour market is viewed as potentially negative, with 47% of chief economists expecting net job losses over the next decade, compared to only 19% who foresee net gains.
• Major AI investment initiatives have been launched globally, including the US Stargate Initiative ($500 billion over four years), the EU's InvestAI (€200 billion), and a Chinese venture-capital fund (CNY 1 trillion).
• Regional economic outlooks vary: South Asia is the most optimistic region with 33% expecting strong or very strong growth. Conversely, the IMF projects a 0.3% contraction in Mexico's real GDP and a growth rate of only 1.4% for Canada in 2025 due to US policy shifts.

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Chief Economists Outlook. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=May 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }