The Land Sector in the Second Wave of INDCs

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed the second wave of INDCs for China, Canada, Ethiopia, and Morocco, focusing on agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU). The analysis reveals a disparity between developed and developing nations: Morocco and Ethiopia provided detailed, ambitious land-sector plans, while Canada and China showed significant gaps. Canada's submission lacked specific mitigation actions and excluded natural disturbances from accounting, while China failed to distinguish between new and existing programs and lacked a detailed accounting framework. Morocco's INDC was identified as the strongest, offering concrete actions and differentiating between unconditional and conditional goals.

• Morocco's INDC is the most comprehensive of the four analyzed, featuring detailed methodology and concrete actions. It estimates that AFOLU will contribute approximately 31 percent of its mitigation effort and distinguishes between unconditional goals (a 13 percent all-sector reduction by 2030) and those requiring international support (an additional 19 percent reduction).
• Ethiopia's INDC shows high ambition because the land sector is its primary emissions source, accounting for 88 percent (132 Mt CO2e) of its 2010 total emissions. By 2030, Ethiopia plans to reduce emissions by 130 Mt CO2e from forests and 90 Mt CO2e from agriculture, though it lacks specific agricultural action plans and clear details on the necessity of international financing.
• Canada's INDC is characterized as weak due to a lack of specific land-sector mitigation policies and the exclusion of naturally occurring emissions from its accounting. This exclusion is problematic as forest fires and beetle outbreaks, which contribute significantly to emissions, are potentially manageable through adaptive forest management.
• China's INDC provides specific quantitative targets, such as increasing forest stock volume by 4.5 billion cubic meters relative to 2005 levels and achieving zero growth in fertilizer utilization by 2020. However, it is limited by the absence of a detailed accounting framework and a failure to distinguish between new initiatives and existing programs.
• A general trend in the second wave of INDCs is that smaller developing countries provide more detail and transparency regarding land-sector actions than larger developed countries.

APA

Ferretti-Gallon, K., & Boucher, D. (2015). The Land Sector in the Second Wave of INDCs. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/09/ucs-land-sector-in-second-wave-of-indcs-2015.pdf

Chicago

Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi, and Doug Boucher. The Land Sector in the Second Wave of INDCs. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/09/ucs-land-sector-in-second-wave-of-indcs-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ferretti-Gallon |first1=Kalifi |last2=Boucher |first2=Doug |title=The Land Sector in the Second Wave of INDCs |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/09/ucs-land-sector-in-second-wave-of-indcs-2015.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ferrettigallon2015land, author = {Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi and Boucher, Doug}, title = {{The Land Sector in the Second Wave of INDCs}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/09/ucs-land-sector-in-second-wave-of-indcs-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }