The Land Sector in the First INDCs Intended Climate Contributions of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) evaluated the land sector (AFOLU) plans within the initial INDCs of the US, EU, and Mexico. The analysis finds a stark contrast between developed and developing nations: while the US and EU provide reasonable accounting standards, they lack specific action plans to realize their substantial mitigation potentials. In contrast, Mexico provides a highly transparent and ambitious plan, including a goal of zero deforestation by 2030 and a target for emissions to peak and decline by 2026. The report emphasizes that the land sector is critical for closing the global emissions gap, but current INDCs from developed nations are insufficient in detail to determine if their ambitions match their capacities.

• The United States has the highest potential for land sector-related reductions in the 2020s, estimated at approximately 2.5 Gt CO2eq/year, yet its INDC contains no specific plan for action in the agriculture and forestry sectors.
• The European Union's land-sector mitigation potential for the 2020s is estimated at a median of 0.4 Gt CO2eq/year, but its INDC lacks explicit policy or actions, stating that policy will be established only when "technical conditions allow".
• Mexico's INDC is characterized by high transparency and ambition, including a commitment to reach 0 percent deforestation by 2030 and a goal for overall emissions to peak and begin declining by 2026.
• Mexico's specific land-sector actions for 20202030 include reforesting watersheds, conserving ecosystems through biological corridors, increasing carbon capture, and strengthening coastal protection for mangroves, coral reefs, and dunes.
• The land sector (AFOLU) is estimated to account for just under one-fourth of global warming pollution, with agriculture emissions growing (5.4 Gt CO2eq/year) while forest emissions have declined (4.8 Gt CO2eq/year).
• There is a concern regarding the U.S. accounting approach, which may exclude emissions from "natural disturbances", potentially creating a perverse incentive against improving forest management for fires and beetle outbreaks.

APA

Boucher, D., & Ferretti-Gallon, K. (2015). The Land Sector in the First INDCs Intended Climate Contributions of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/06/ucs-land-sector-in-first-indcs-2015.pdf

Chicago

Boucher, Doug, and Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon. The Land Sector in the First INDCs Intended Climate Contributions of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/06/ucs-land-sector-in-first-indcs-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boucher |first1=Doug |last2=Ferretti-Gallon |first2=Kalifi |title=The Land Sector in the First INDCs Intended Climate Contributions of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=April 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/06/ucs-land-sector-in-first-indcs-2015.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boucher2015land, author = {Boucher, Doug and Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi}, title = {{The Land Sector in the First INDCs Intended Climate Contributions of the United States, the European Union, and Mexico}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = apr, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/06/ucs-land-sector-in-first-indcs-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }