The Role of Natural Gas in the States Clean Electricity Future

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) analyzed the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) territory to determine the feasibility of retiring natural gas plants. The analysis finds that no new gas capacity is needed by 2030 and that nearly a quarter of existing capacity could be retired. However, the report warns that without clean grid management solutions, remaining plants may cycle on and off more frequently, potentially increasing NOx emissions despite lower overall carbon output. The study emphasizes that local capacity requirements (LCR) are a primary barrier to retiring peaker plants and suggests strategic energy storage and demand shifting as solutions.

• Analysis of the CAISO territory indicates that California does not need to build any additional natural gas generation capacity to meet its 2030 energy or grid reliability needs under a 42 MMT emissions reduction scenario.
• As of 2018, approximately 23 percent of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) capacity and 24 percent of peaker capacity—totaling 28 of 89 plants in the CAISO territory—could be retired without negatively impacting grid reliability.
• Local capacity requirements (LCR) act as a barrier to the retirement of peaker plants; in scenarios where LCR is not enforced, more than double the amount of peaker capacity could be retired compared to scenarios where LCR is enforced.
• While overall natural gas generation is expected to decrease by 4.2 million gigawatt-hours (8 percent) by 2030 in the 42 MMT scenario, many remaining plants may start and stop more frequently, which could increase NOx emissions.
• In the 42 MMT scenario, 16 of the 23 remaining modeled CCGTs would increase their annual start-stop frequency from nearly zero in 2018 to at least 200 times per year by 2030.
• Many of the natural gas plants identified for potential retirement are located in disadvantaged communities in the Central Valley that suffer from year-round air pollution.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2018). The Role of Natural Gas in the States Clean Electricity Future. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/07/Turning-Down-Natural-Gas-California-fact-sheet.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. The Role of Natural Gas in the States Clean Electricity Future. 2018. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/07/Turning-Down-Natural-Gas-California-fact-sheet.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=The Role of Natural Gas in the States Clean Electricity Future |date=August 2018 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/07/Turning-Down-Natural-Gas-California-fact-sheet.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2018role, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{The Role of Natural Gas in the States Clean Electricity Future}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/07/Turning-Down-Natural-Gas-California-fact-sheet.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }