China’s Nuclear Force

The report concludes that China's nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller and less capable than that of the United States, with a modernization program focused primarily on delivery vehicles rather than fissile material production or warhead design. It highlights that China's fissile material stocks and number of nuclear tests are far lower than US levels, limiting its potential warhead count to between 380 and 880. The author suggests that the US can further restrict China's nuclear growth through the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).

• China's nuclear force is substantially smaller and less capable than the US force, and its current modernization program is unlikely to change this disparity.
• China's production of fissile materials is significantly lower than that of the US; the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) estimates China has 14  3 tons of highly enriched uranium and 2.9  0.6 tons of weapon-grade plutonium, while the US has 253 tons of highly enriched uranium and 38.3 tons of plutonium.
• China's limited nuclear testing history, consisting of 45 explosive tests before 1996 compared to 1,056 for the US, has resulted in fewer and heavier warhead designs that require more fissile material.
• Based on IPFM plutonium estimates and assumed warhead requirements of 4 to 6 kg of plutonium, China could produce between 380 and 880 nuclear warheads, whereas the US has approximately 4,480 warheads in its current arsenal.
• China's nuclear delivery capabilities are concentrated in ground-based missiles, with 75 to 100 ICBMs, while the US possesses 400 ICBMs and significantly more advanced SLBM capabilities.
• The report argues that the most effective way to limit China's nuclear growth is through the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT).

APA

Kulacki, G. (2018). China’s Nuclear Force. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/modernizing-from-behind.pdf

Chicago

Kulacki, Gregory. China’s Nuclear Force. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2018. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/modernizing-from-behind.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kulacki |first1=Gregory |title=China’s Nuclear Force |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=January 2018 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/modernizing-from-behind.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kulacki2018chinas, author = {Kulacki, Gregory}, title = {{China’s Nuclear Force}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2018}, month = jan, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/01/modernizing-from-behind.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }