Japan Is Not an Obstacle to a US “No-First-Use” Policy

The document contends that US concerns regarding a nuclear-armed Japan are unfounded and should not prevent President Biden from declaring a no-first-use policy. It bases this on two secret government inquiries (1970 and 1995) that rejected the nuclear option, overwhelming public opposition to nuclear weapons in Japan, and the fact that a small minority of conservative officials lack the political agency to pursue such a program. The report asserts that a no-first-use declaration would not undermine the US nuclear umbrella's deterrent function for Japan.

• Two confidential Japanese government inquiries, completed in 1970 and 1995, both concluded that Japan should not develop nuclear weapons, finding that the benefits were not worth the political, diplomatic, and economic costs.
• There is an overwhelming public consensus in Japan against nuclear weapons, with an estimated 75% of the population supporting the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
• US fears that Japan might go nuclear are based on reports from a very small number of officials (perhaps 15 to 20 individuals) and outdated stereotypes, rather than substantive evidence.
• Japan's possession of separated plutonium is not evidence of a latent weapons program, as the material is under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and the government restricts nuclear energy to peaceful purposes.
• A US no-first-use declaration would not compromise Japan's security because the threat of US nuclear retaliation would still deter attacks against Japan.
• Japanese officials have historically used secrecy and 'don't ask, don't tell' arrangements to reconcile the US nuclear umbrella with the Japanese public's anti-nuclear sentiments and the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2021). Japan Is Not an Obstacle to a US “No-First-Use” Policy. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/japan-is-not-an-obstacle-to-nfu_0.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Japan Is Not an Obstacle to a US “No-First-Use” Policy. 2021. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/japan-is-not-an-obstacle-to-nfu_0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Japan Is Not an Obstacle to a US “No-First-Use” Policy |date=July 2021 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/japan-is-not-an-obstacle-to-nfu_0.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2021japan, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Japan Is Not an Obstacle to a US “No-First-Use” Policy}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/japan-is-not-an-obstacle-to-nfu_0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }