THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT

The report analyzes the potential consequences of a terrorist attack at the Indian Point nuclear power plant, arguing that current 10-mile emergency planning zones are inadequate. Using the MACCS2 computer code, the author estimates that a successful attack could result in up to 44,000 near-term deaths and 518,000 long-term cancer deaths within 50 miles, with economic damages reaching $2.1 trillion. The analysis highlights that residents of New York City are at significant risk, particularly children who may require potassium iodide (KI) to prevent thyroid cancer, and suggests that sheltering may be more effective than evacuation for those outside the immediate 10-mile zone.

• A terrorist attack at Indian Point resulting in a core meltdown could cause up to 44,000 near-term deaths from acute radiation syndrome and over 500,000 long-term cancer deaths among individuals within 50 miles of the plant, depending on weather conditions.
• For 95th percentile weather conditions, near-term deaths could occur as far as 18 miles from the plant, and in the worst-case scenario, as far as 60 miles away.
• Projected thyroid doses for five-year-old children in midtown Manhattan exceed FDA thresholds for potassium iodide (KI) administration for both mean and 95th percentile weather scenarios.
• Adult whole-body total effective dose equivalents (TEDEs) in midtown Manhattan are projected to exceed the EPA Protective Action Guide (PAG) evacuation threshold of 1-5 rem.
• Economic damages within 100 miles are estimated at $1.17 trillion for 95th percentile weather conditions and up to $2.12 trillion in the worst case, based on EPA guidance for relocation and cleanup.
• For residents between 10.7 and 25 miles from the plant, sheltering for 24 hours is projected to result in fewer latent cancer fatalities than evacuation.
• Relaxing the long-term cleanup standard from 5 rem in 50 years to 25 rem in 50 years would reduce relocation numbers by 90% but nearly triple the number of long-term cancer deaths.

APA

Lyman, E. S. (2004). THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/indianpointhealthstudy.pdf

Chicago

Lyman, Edwin S. THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2004. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/indianpointhealthstudy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lyman |first1=Edwin S. |title=THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2004 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/indianpointhealthstudy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lyman2004health, author = {Lyman, Edwin S.}, title = {{THE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A TERRORIST ATTACK AT THE INDIAN POINT NUCLEAR PLANT}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2004}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/indianpointhealthstudy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }