Gas Malfunction Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants

The document examines the vulnerability of the US gas-fired power plant fleet to extreme winter and summer weather, noting that gas plants are the primary source of generation failures during major storms. It argues that current resource adequacy metrics overvalue gas reliability and recommends transitioning to probabilistic modeling, increasing transparency, and prioritizing renewables, storage, and demand-side solutions to ensure a resilient power grid.

• Natural gas plants are disproportionately susceptible to failures during extreme winter weather compared to other energy sources. In five major winter storm events since 2011, gas plants were the largest source of lost generating capacity, with cumulative failures more than twice those of the next most-impacted category.
• Winter storm failures in gas plants are often caused by equipment freezing and mechanical/electrical issues, frequently occurring even when temperatures remain above the plants' minimum ambient temperature ratings. For Winter Storm Uri (2021), 81 percent of freeze-related outages occurred above these ratings, and for Winter Storm Elliott (2022), the figure was over 75 percent.
• Gas plants are uniquely vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions because they typically do not store fuel on-site. Extreme cold can cause 'freeze-offs' in wells and pipelines; for instance, during Winter Storm Uri, Texas saw a 70 percent decrease in gas production, and the lower 48 states experienced a 28 percent decrease.
• Extreme summer weather also threatens reliability through heat-induced derates and drought-driven water shortages. In Texas, between 2010 and 2015, one operator took 403 MW of gas capacity offline for nearly a year due to drought, and ERCOT has since identified over 10,000 MW of gas capacity as at risk from drought.
• Current grid reliability metrics, such as installed capacity (ICAP) and unforced capacity (UCAP), are insufficient because they do not account for widespread, correlated outages. The document advocates for the use of effective load carrying capability (ELCC), a probabilistic measure that can better quantify the risks of correlated failures.
• Weatherization and the ability to switch to on-site fuels like diesel are not comprehensive solutions. During Winter Storm Elliott, most plants that failed already had cold-weather preparedness plans, and diesel plants have also been found to underperform in cold weather.
• Clean energy alternatives can provide superior reliability compared to gas. A PJM analysis showed the winter ELCC of offshore wind (68 percent) is higher than that of a gas combustion turbine (63 percent). Additionally, research suggests that an extra 10 GW of solar in Texas would have reduced the scale of rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Uri.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2024). Gas Malfunction Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/Gas%20Malfunction_brief_1.8.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Gas Malfunction Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants. 2024. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/Gas%20Malfunction_brief_1.8.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Gas Malfunction Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants |date=January 2024 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/Gas%20Malfunction_brief_1.8.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2024gas, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Gas Malfunction Calling into Question the Reliability of Gas Power Plants}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2024}, month = jan, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/Gas%20Malfunction_brief_1.8.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }