A Risky Proposition

The document outlines the financial hazards of investing in new or retrofitted coal plants in the U.S., citing competition from natural gas and renewables, rising fuel costs, and the likelihood of future carbon pricing. It highlights that coal is no longer the low-cost option it once was and that many existing plants are inefficient and ripe for retirement. The report suggests that the U.S. can replace most coal power with renewable energy, demand reduction, and natural gas within 15 to 20 years.

• New coal plants have lost their traditional cost advantage and are now more expensive than several cleaner alternatives, including new natural gas plants, wind facilities, and geothermal sites, as well as investments in energy efficiency.
• The economic viability of coal is threatened by the growth of competing technologies: energy efficiency could reduce power demand by 23 percent below projected levels by 2020, and non-hydro renewable power is projected by the EIA to increase its share of U.S. generation to 11.7 percent by 2030.
• Coal is no longer a reliably low-cost fuel due to volatile global markets, rising demand from China and India, and declining productivity in U.S. coalfields. For example, Powder River Basin coal contract prices rose 67 percent between October 2009 and October 2010.
• A significant portion of the U.S. coal fleet is obsolete; 72 percent of capacity is older than 30 years and 34 percent is older than 40 years, making retirement more economically sensible than expensive retrofits.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not currently a viable financial safeguard for coal investments, as there are no commercial-scale plants using the technology and design estimates suggest it could increase energy costs for new pulverized coal plants by 78 percent.
• Coal plants face substantial financial liabilities from environmental and health impacts, including sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions that cost society over $100 billion annually, and the risk of new EPA regulations regarding mercury and toxic coal ash.
• The United States has the capacity to replace most of its coal power with natural gas, renewable energy, and demand reduction within the next 15 to 20 years.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2011). A Risky Proposition. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/a-risky-proposition-summary.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. A Risky Proposition. 2011. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/a-risky-proposition-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=A Risky Proposition |date=March 2011 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/a-risky-proposition-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2011risky, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{A Risky Proposition}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2011}, month = mar, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/a-risky-proposition-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }