A Dwindling Role for Coal

The report evaluates the US coal fleet's economic viability against alternatives like natural gas and renewables, finding that 38% of the 2016 fleet faces an uncertain near-term future due to being either uneconomic or announced for retirement. It also estimates that emissions reductions from 2008 to 2016 provided $250 billion in public health and climate benefits. A proximity analysis indicates that while many coal plants are located in low-income and minority communities, the demographic distribution of the fleet has not changed significantly during the transition.

• As of 2016, 38% of the US coal fleet faces an uncertain near-term future, consisting of 122 units (57 GW) that are uneconomic compared to existing natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants and 163 units (51 GW) already announced for retirement or conversion.
• The economic vulnerability of coal units increases significantly under different cost scenarios: a $25/metric ton carbon price would make 62% of the 2016 fleet (371 units, 175 GW) uneconomic compared to regional wind resources.
• Coal units most likely to remain competitive are larger and run more frequently, with an average size of 510 MW and a capacity factor of 58%, whereas announced retirements are smaller (317 MW) and older (average age 49 years).
• Between 2008 and 2016, the 1,256 identified coal units reduced SO2 emissions by 80%, NOx by 64%, and CO2 by 34%, resulting in estimated total public health and climate benefits of $250 billion.
• Units announced for retirement are more likely to lack pollution controls for SO2, NOx, and mercury, with nearly 20% having no controls for any of these pollutants.
• Proximity analysis shows that the proportion of coal units located in minority and low-income communities did not change significantly between 2008 and 2016, nor is it expected to change significantly as uneconomic units retire.
• In the Southeast (SERC) and Florida (FRCC) regions, anticipated new generation from renewables, energy efficiency, and nuclear is insufficient to replace lost coal generation, though existing excess natural gas capacity could cover the shortfall.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2017). A Dwindling Role for Coal. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/09/A-Dwindling-Role-for-Coal-technical-appendix.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. A Dwindling Role for Coal. 2017. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/09/A-Dwindling-Role-for-Coal-technical-appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=A Dwindling Role for Coal |date=October 2017 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/09/A-Dwindling-Role-for-Coal-technical-appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2017dwindling, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{A Dwindling Role for Coal}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2017}, month = oct, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/09/A-Dwindling-Role-for-Coal-technical-appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }