Perspectives of the Global South on the NCQG: CAN THE CBD FINANCIAL TARGETS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR THE UNFCCC NEW CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL?

This research paper analyzes whether the financial target model of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) can be applied to the UNFCCC's New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. The authors argue that the current USD 100 billion goal is insufficient and poorly structured, noting that developing countries' needs reach up to USD 6 trillion annually. They recommend a multi-layered NCQG approach that includes a core public finance target, private finance mobilization, and the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies (which totaled USD 7 trillion in 2022). The paper also suggests a 10-year staggered timeframe and updates to the Enhanced Transparency Framework to include Loss and Damage and non-State actor contributions.

• The current UNFCCC climate finance mobilization goal of USD 100 billion per year, valid until 2025, was not collectively negotiated with developing countries nor based on their needs. It has faced significant shortcomings, including a heavy reliance on loans (over 70% of mobilized finance) and a geographical imbalance where approximately 90% of resources remained in Asia and the Global North.
• Developing countries' financial needs for a 1.5°C transition are vastly higher than current goals, with estimates reaching up to USD 6 trillion annually for NDCs in the pre-2030 period. Long-term projections suggest annual global climate finance needs from 2031 to 2050 could exceed USD 10 trillion.
• The CBD's financial model, specifically Targets 18 and 19 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM GBF), uses a dual approach: reducing harmful subsidies (Target 18, aiming for at least USD 500 billion per year by 2030) and mobilizing resources from all sources (Target 19, aiming for USD 200 billion per year by 2030), including a specific provision from developed to developing countries of USD 20 billion by 2025 and USD 30 billion by 2030.
• The authors recommend that the NCQG adopt a 'mixture of layers' inspired by the CBD model: a core target for public international climate finance from developed to developing countries, a target for private finance led by developed countries, and a domestic resource mobilization approach focused on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
• Fossil fuel subsidies represent a massive untapped source of climate finance, reaching USD 7 trillion in 2022 (7.2% of global GDP), which dwarfs the USD 100 billion goal (approximately 0.1% of global GDP).
• The authors suggest the NCQG adopt a staggered timeframe consisting of a 10-year operational window with five-year intermediate goals and indicative longer-term targets for 2040 and/or 2050.
• To improve transparency, the authors recommend updating the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) Common Tabular Formats (CTFs) to include Loss and Damage as a specific category of support, and to incorporate innovative instruments such as debt management and risk-sharing instruments.

APA

A., L. C., J., S. A., & A., M. (2024). Perspectives of the Global South on the NCQG: CAN THE CBD FINANCIAL TARGETS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR THE UNFCCC NEW CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL? Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Perpectives-of-the-Global-South-on-the-NCQG.pdf

Chicago

A., Lopez Carbajal,, Solano Acuña, J., and Mateus, A. Perspectives of the Global South on the NCQG: CAN THE CBD FINANCIAL TARGETS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR THE UNFCCC NEW CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL? Transforma, 2024. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Perpectives-of-the-Global-South-on-the-NCQG.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=A. |first1=Lopez Carbajal, |last2=J. |first2=Solano Acuña, |last3=A. |first3=Mateus, |title=Perspectives of the Global South on the NCQG: CAN THE CBD FINANCIAL TARGETS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR THE UNFCCC NEW CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL? |publisher=Transforma |date=2024 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Perpectives-of-the-Global-South-on-the-NCQG.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{a2024perspectives, author = {A., Lopez Carbajal, and J., Solano Acuña, and A., Mateus,}, title = {{Perspectives of the Global South on the NCQG: CAN THE CBD FINANCIAL TARGETS MODEL BE REPLICATED FOR THE UNFCCC NEW CLIMATE FINANCE GOAL?}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2024}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Perpectives-of-the-Global-South-on-the-NCQG.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }