Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial

This policy brief examines the transition from natural gas to electricity in Colombia's residential sector. Using a simulation model, it finds that while gas currently dominates cooking and heating, a shift toward electrification is necessary due to declining reserves. The report highlights that total electrification is more cost-effective than a mixed transition, potentially saving up to 20 trillion pesos, and significantly reducing CO2 emissions. However, adoption is hindered by high initial equipment costs and cultural inertia, suggesting a need for public policies such as equipment substitution programs and local value chain strengthening.

• Natural gas has historically expanded energy coverage in Colombia, with over 11 million households currently using piped natural gas. However, declining national reserves and a reliance on imports create economic and geopolitical risks, necessitating a shift toward sustainable alternatives.
• The residential sector's energy consumption is heavily weighted toward thermal uses (cooking and water heating), which account for 47% of home energy use. Currently, 64.2% of households cook with piped gas and 21.8% use LPG, while only 2.4% use electricity for cooking.
• Simulation results for cooking appliances indicate that in a base scenario (no subsidies, no gas disconnection costs), electric stoves could reach a 45% market share by 2050. A tipping point is expected around 2035, when the number of new electric stoves begins to exceed new gas stoves.
• Electrification of water heaters is projected to be faster than that of cooking appliances, with electric heaters expected to hold over 80% of the market by 2050. This is attributed to a higher initial proportion of electric equipment and lower cost differences between technologies compared to stoves.
• The transition is highly sensitive to pricing. A sustained 50% increase in gas prices could reduce the number of gas stoves by 10% by 2050; if combined with lower costs for induction stoves, the reduction could reach 16%.
• Immediate total electrification is significantly more cost-effective than a mixed transition. Total electrification from the start would cost 36.5 trillion pesos, saving over 10 trillion pesos compared to a mixed scenario and nearly 20 trillion pesos compared to a gas-based trajectory.
• Electrification of residential heat uses can reduce cooking emissions by 24% to 29% compared to non-diversified scenarios, with total annual residential heat emissions estimated at 3.84 million tons of CO2eq by 2050.

APA

Parra, J. F., Valencia, V., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Martínez, C., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf

Chicago

Parra, Juan Felipe, Verónica Valencia, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Carolina Martínez, and Giovanni Pabón. Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Parra |first1=Juan Felipe |last2=Valencia |first2=Verónica |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |last4=Rodas |first4=Santiago |last5=Martínez |first5=Carolina |last6=Pabón |first6=Giovanni |title=Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{parrandanlisis, author = {Parra, Juan Felipe and Valencia, Verónica and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Martínez, Carolina and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }