Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial

The document analyzes the feasibility and impact of electrifying residential thermal uses in Colombia, specifically replacing gas stoves and water heaters with electric induction and instant heaters. Using a simulation model, it identifies economic, cultural, and technical barriers to adoption and argues that an immediate shift to total electrification is more cost-effective than a mixed transition. It highlights the risk of gas supply shortages by 2038 and recommends public policies, such as equipment substitution programs and local value chain strengthening, to accelerate a just energy transition.

• Colombia faces a significant projected imbalance between residential gas demand and national supply; while demand could reach 185 to 235 GBTUD by 2050, national supply is projected to drop from 939 GBTUD in 2025 to 293 GBTUD by 2038 in one scenario.
• In a base scenario without subsidies or gas disconnection costs, electric stoves are projected to reach a 45% market share by 2050, with new electric stove installations expected to surpass new gas stoves by 2035.
• The transition is highly sensitive to pricing; a sustained 50% increase in gas prices could reduce the number of gas stoves in 2050 by 10%, and a combined scenario of high gas prices and cheaper induction stoves could reduce gas stove use by 16% compared to the reference scenario.
• Total electrification from the start is significantly more cost-effective than a mixed transition; a total electrification path would cost 36.5 trillion pesos, saving over 10 trillion pesos compared to a mixed scenario (48 trillion pesos) and nearly 20 trillion pesos compared to a fully gas-based path.
• Adopting electric stoves can reduce residential cooking emissions by 24% to 29% compared to scenarios without diversification, with total annual residential heat emissions estimated at 3.84 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050.
• Major barriers to electrification include high initial equipment costs, the need for kitchen and electrical grid modifications, cultural inertia, and the potential disincentive created by existing energy subsidies (which cover approximately 90% of electricity and 60% of piped natural gas users).

APA

Parra, J. F., Valencia, V., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Martínez, C., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf

Chicago

Parra, Juan Felipe, Verónica Valencia, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Carolina Martínez, and Giovanni Pabón. Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Parra |first1=Juan Felipe |last2=Valencia |first2=Verónica |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |last4=Rodas |first4=Santiago |last5=Martínez |first5=Carolina |last6=Pabón |first6=Giovanni |title=Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{parrandanlisis, author = {Parra, Juan Felipe and Valencia, Verónica and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Martínez, Carolina and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector residencial}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_residencial.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }