Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda)

The document analyzes Colombia's electricity balance through 2038, finding that while average energy supply remains sufficient, 'firm energy' (reliable capacity) faces deficits as early as 2029 depending on the coal phase-out scenario. To avoid these deficits, the report argues for significantly accelerating renewable energy deployment, improving transmission infrastructure, and implementing energy storage to replace the high reliability of coal plants.

• Colombia's electricity system currently has nearly 21 GW of installed capacity, which is sufficient to meet a 2023 demand of 80,684.24 MWh/year while maintaining a reserve margin.
• Under the 'Base Scenario', a firm energy deficit is projected to occur in 2034, reaching a deficit of 10.11% by 2038.
• The timing and severity of energy deficits accelerate depending on the coal plant exit strategy: a 'Coordinated Exit' scenario leads to a deficit by 2029, while a 'Public Plants First' scenario leads to a deficit by 2031; both result in a 20.17% deficit by 2038.
• To guarantee energy supply during a coal phase-out, Colombia would need 60% more solar power than currently planned, or 77% more to guarantee firm energy.
• Replacing coal with other renewables is more challenging: avoiding imbalances would require six times the planned small hydroelectric plant (PCH) capacity (22 times for firm energy) or double the planned additional wind power (9 times for firm energy).
• Coal plants are significantly more efficient in terms of energy generation per megawatt of installed capacity, producing approximately four times more energy than solar plants.
• To ensure a secure transition, the report recommends implementing battery energy storage, updating the reliability charge (cargo por confiabilidad), and assigning Firm Energy Obligations (OEF) to renewable sources.

APA

Valencia, V., Parra, J. F., & Castro, K. (2024). Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda). Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf

Chicago

Valencia, Verónica, Juan Felipe Parra, and Karem Castro. Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda). Transforma, 2024. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Valencia |first1=Verónica |last2=Parra |first2=Juan Felipe |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda) |publisher=Transforma |date=October 2024 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{valencia2024balances, author = {Valencia, Verónica and Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda)}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }