Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda)

This policy brief by Transforma analyzes the electricity supply-demand balance in Colombia through 2038, specifically evaluating the impact of phasing out coal-fired thermal power plants. While the system currently has sufficient capacity, the report identifies potential deficits in 'firm energy' (reliable capacity during low hydrology) depending on the speed and sequence of the coal phase-out, emphasizing the need for accelerated renewable energy deployment and grid improvements.

• As of October 2024, Colombia has nearly 21 GW of installed capacity, which is sufficient to meet a 2023 electricity demand of 80,684.24 MWh/year while maintaining a reserve margin for system flexibility.
• The electricity supply margin faces risks from a projected average annual demand growth of 2.8% and the planned phase-out of coal thermal plants under Colombia's commitments to the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) and the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA).
• Analysis of 'average energy' (energía media) indicates no supply deficit is expected through 2038, even with the removal of coal plants, showing a projected supply surplus of 31.8% relative to demand by 2038.
• In contrast to average energy, 'firm energy' (capacity guaranteed during low hydrology) shows potential deficits depending on the phase-out scenario: a deficit by 2034 in the base scenario, by 2029 in the 'Coordinated Exit' scenario, and by 2031 in the 'Public Plants First' scenario.
• To compensate for the total removal of coal plants (1,683.1 MW) and ensure firm energy by 2038, the required additional renewable capacity is substantial: 18.66 GW of solar, 18.66 GW of small hydroelectric plants (PCH), or 46.66 GW of wind power.
• Replacing coal plants with renewables is challenging because a coal plant generates approximately four times more energy per megawatt of installed capacity than a solar plant.
• The report recommends policy interventions including demand-side efficiency strategies, resolving socio-environmental conflicts delaying renewable projects, prioritizing transmission grid improvements, and updating the reliability charge (cargo por confiabilidad) and Firm Energy Obligations (OEF) for renewables.

APA

Valencia, V., Parra, J. F., & Castro, K. (2024). Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda). Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf

Chicago

Valencia, Verónica, Juan Felipe Parra, and Karem Castro. Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda). Transforma, 2024. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Valencia |first1=Verónica |last2=Parra |first2=Juan Felipe |last3=Castro |first3=Karem |title=Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda) |publisher=Transforma |date=October 2024 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{valencia2024balances, author = {Valencia, Verónica and Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Balances de energía eléctrica (oferta-demanda)}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/PB-balance_energia_electrica_phase_out_termicas_carbon-comprimido.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }