Quantifying Adaptation Finance in aPost-2025 Goal: from Political Intent to Operational Clarity

This briefing by Transforma examines the persistent gap between climate adaptation finance needs and actual flows, critiquing the lack of quantitative clarity in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) and proposing options for establishing a trackable adaptation finance target by COP30.

• There is a significant imbalance between climate mitigation and adaptation funding. While total global climate finance flows reached USD 1.5–1.6 trillion in 2023, adaptation funding accounted for only USD 76 billion in 2022, representing barely 5 percent of the total.
• Adaptation finance needs for developing countries far exceed current international public finance. UNEP estimates these countries require between USD 215 and 387 billion annually by 2030, yet international public finance was only USD 28 billion in 2022. Furthermore, expected debt-service payments for developing countries in 2024, exceeding USD 400 billion, are projected to surpass the upper bound of adaptation needs.
• The Glasgow Climate Pact's goal to double adaptation finance by 2025 from a 2019 baseline (estimated at USD 20.3 billion) has seen insufficient implementation. The progress report on this target was criticized for being prepared by the responsible countries, using unverified data and unclear methodologies, and conflating public and private finance.
• The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) adopted at COP 29 lacks specific quantitative allocations for adaptation, despite mentioning a target of USD 300 billion or an end-goal of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. This absence of clarity risks repeating previous underdelivery patterns.
• To establish a credible adaptation goal, the document suggests two quantum options: the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group's call to triple adaptation finance by 2030 from 2025 levels, or a numerical target of at least USD 120 billion annually by 2030, primarily through public, grant-based, or highly concessional resources.

APA

Transforma (n.d.). Quantifying Adaptation Finance in aPost-2025 Goal: from Political Intent to Operational Clarity. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Adaptation-finance-brief.pdf

Chicago

Transforma. Quantifying Adaptation Finance in aPost-2025 Goal: from Political Intent to Operational Clarity. n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Adaptation-finance-brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Transforma |title=Quantifying Adaptation Finance in aPost-2025 Goal: from Political Intent to Operational Clarity |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Adaptation-finance-brief.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{transformandquantifying, author = {{Transforma}}, title = {{Quantifying Adaptation Finance in aPost-2025 Goal: from Political Intent to Operational Clarity}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Adaptation-finance-brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }