Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications of the Keystone XL Pipeline

The research argues that existing assessments of the Keystone XL pipeline overlook the 'price effect,' where increased oil supply lowers global prices and induces higher consumption. Using a supply-and-demand model, the authors find that if the pipeline enables production that would not otherwise reach the market, it could increase global GHG emissions by up to 93 million tCO2e per year by 2020. This impact is significantly higher than the emissions resulting solely from the higher carbon intensity of oil sands compared to other crudes.

• The pipeline's potential to lower global oil prices, even by less than 1%, could increase global oil demand by 510,000 barrels per day, which represents 62% of the Keystone XL capacity.
• In a scenario where none of the oil transported by the pipeline would otherwise reach the market, the resulting increase in global oil consumption could boost annual GHG emissions by 93 million tCO2e by 2020.
• The emissions impact considering price effects is approximately four to five times greater than the impact of simply displacing average U.S. imported crude with oil-sands crude.
• An annual increase of 93 million tCO2e would be equivalent to roughly 10% of the emission reductions the U.S. government pledged to achieve by 2020 (targeting 17% below 2005 levels).
• The potential GHG increases from Keystone XL in 2020 could exceed the emission reductions achieved by certain U.S. EPA performance standards for petroleum refineries, cement kilns, and industrial boilers.
• Over the 50-year lifespan of the pipeline, the cumulative impact on global GHG emissions is estimated at 4.3 billion tons CO2e, assuming no other transport options would have brought the oil to market.

APA

Lazarus, M., & Erickson, P. (2013). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-price-effects.pdf

Chicago

Lazarus, Michael, and Peter Erickson. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-price-effects.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lazarus |first1=Michael |last2=Erickson |first2=Peter |title=Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications of the Keystone XL Pipeline |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=December 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-price-effects.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lazarus2013greenhouse, author = {Lazarus, Michael and Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications of the Keystone XL Pipeline}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-price-effects.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }