Casting DICE for 350 ppm

The authors test the sensitivity of the DICE-2007 model to various inputs, creating a 'DICE-Adjusted' version that incorporates updated population projections, a lower discount rate from the Stern Review, and endogenized non-CO2 greenhouse gas effects. They find that when climate sensitivity is increased to 6C and the damage function exponent is raised to 3, the model recommends achieving a completely emission-free world economy within approximately 60 years to maximize human welfare. The study also demonstrates that the cost of 100-percent abatement significantly influences the timing of full emissions control and peak temperature outcomes.

• The 'DICE-Adjusted' model, which uses a 0.1 percent discount rate and updated population and non-CO2 gas data, recommends more rapid abatement than the original DICE-2007 model. For default parameters (3C sensitivity, exponent 2), DICE-Adjusted reaches 100-percent abatement by 2165, compared to 2205 in DICE-Original.
• Under a 'worst case' scenario with a climate sensitivity of 6C and a damage function exponent of 3, the DICE-Adjusted model suggests that human welfare is maximized by eliminating all carbon emissions in less than 60 years and limiting peak temperature increases to 1.3C.
• With the high-sensitivity (6C) and high-damage (exponent 3) parameters, the DICE-Adjusted model projects atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 380 ppm or less by the start of the next century.
• The cost of achieving 100-percent abatement is a critical driver of the model's timeline. Halving the initial cost of 100-percent abatement to 2.8 percent of global output accelerates the reach of full emission control by 40 years (to 2125) under default parameters in the DICE-Adjusted model.
• The authors argue that the gradual abatement policies typically recommended by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) like DICE are a result of specific input assumptions rather than inherent theoretical or empirical insights.

APA

Bueno, R., & Stanton, E. A. (2011). Casting DICE for 350 ppm. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-workingpaperus-1101.pdf

Chicago

Bueno, Ramón, and Elizabeth A. Stanton. Casting DICE for 350 ppm. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-workingpaperus-1101.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bueno |first1=Ramón |last2=Stanton |first2=Elizabeth A. |title=Casting DICE for 350 ppm |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=January 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-workingpaperus-1101.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bueno2011casting, author = {Bueno, Ramón and Stanton, Elizabeth A.}, title = {{Casting DICE for 350 ppm}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-workingpaperus-1101.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }