Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century

The report argues that many climate-economics models rely on overly pessimistic growth projections for the poorest countries, which artificially reduces the perceived urgency for rich countries to cut emissions. By comparing three scenarios—'Without Development', 'Development with Carbon', and 'Development without Carbon'—the author demonstrates that if low-income countries achieve genuine economic development, the global emissions budget will be exceeded unless aggressive decarbonization policies and financial support from high-income nations are implemented. A case study of Latin America and the Caribbean illustrates how regional emissions could double under a high-growth, no-policy scenario, but could be significantly reduced through targeted support for low-carbon technology and emissions intensity reductions.

• The global cumulative emissions budget to maintain a 98-percent chance of keeping temperature increases below 2°C is approximately 2,700 Gt CO2-e, with 200 Gt already emitted by 2011.
• In the 'Without Development' scenario, which reflects standard growth rates in many climate models, 21st-century cumulative emissions reach 10,800 Gt CO2-e, with low-income countries contributing only 6 percent (approximately 700 Gt).
• The 'Development with Carbon' scenario, assuming faster economic growth for the poor without policy intervention, results in cumulative emissions of 20,700 Gt CO2-e, with low-income countries alone emitting 4,400 Gt, exceeding the entire global 2°C budget.
• Under the 'Development without Carbon' strong policy scenario, cumulative emissions are kept within the 2,700 Gt CO2-e budget, with low-income countries contributing 600 Gt.
• There is a strong negative correlation (51 percent) between fertility rates and per capita GDP (PPP), suggesting that economic development is a key determinant of population growth.
• Empirical data from 1980 to 2005 shows that a 1-percent increase in per capita income is associated with a 0.34-percent drop in emissions intensity, termed the 'autonomous-intensity-reduction' pattern.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean, cumulative 21st-century emissions are projected to be 900 Gt CO2-e under 'Without Development', rising to 1,800 Gt CO2-e under 'Development with Carbon', and falling to 200 Gt under 'Development without Carbon' strong policy.
• Certain countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Bolivia, Honduras, Guyana, and Brazil, exhibit emissions intensities significantly higher than predicted by the autonomous-intensity-reduction pattern.
• The report argues that assuming slow economic growth in poor countries weakens the urgency for rich countries to reduce emissions, as it creates a false impression of more 'emissions space'.

APA

Stanton, E. A. (2011). Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A. Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |title=Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2011development, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A.}, title = {{Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }