CAMBIOS REGULATORIOS, DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y DE MERCADO para acelerar el despliegue de energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia

The report argues that Colombia's electrical framework is outdated, designed for a hydro-thermal system and creating barriers to the integration of solar and wind energy. It proposes a structural shift toward a 'energy plus attributes' model, where systemic services like inertia and voltage control are explicitly valued. Key recommendations include reforming the reliability charge (Cargo por Confiabilidad), optimizing transmission capacity allocation to prevent 'hoarding', and transitioning to a more proactive planning role for the UPME. Technical evidence suggests Colombia could operate with over 95% renewable energy by 2038 if these regulatory and market bottlenecks are resolved.

• Colombia's current electrical framework is based on a hydro-thermal paradigm that does not account for non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER) with near-zero marginal costs and higher variability.
• There is a significant gap between the number of FNCER projects with assigned transmission capacity and those actually entering commercial operation; as of November 2025, approximately 65% of analyzed projects failed to meet construction milestones.
• Technical evidence indicates that Colombia could achieve a renewable energy share exceeding 95% by 2038, requiring approximately 15 GW of additional solar and wind capacity over the next decade.
• The current reliability charge (Cargo por Confiabilidad) is outdated, with approximately 36% of the Firm Energy for the Reliability Charge (ENFICC) provided by plants that have been in operation for 35 years or more.
• The system lacks a regulatory framework to value and remunerate essential dynamic stability attributes—such as inertia and frequency control—which were previously implicit in synchronous generation but are critical for inverter-based resources.
• Transmission network capacity is under structural pressure, with recent assignment requests reaching three to four times the system's net effective generation capacity of approximately 21.4 GW.
• The report recommends transitioning from price-based offers to cost-based centralized dispatch for hydroelectric resources, similar to models in Brazil and Uruguay, to optimize water use as a strategic flexibility tool.
• Long-term contracting for FNCER is hindered by rigid hourly obligations that transform financial hedges into physical commitments, increasing capital costs and reducing bankability.
• The UPME's planning role has been predominantly indicative for generation, creating a disconnect between strategic expansion signals and actual investment materialization.
• The report proposes the use of synchronous condensers and the reconversion of retiring coal plants to maintain system stability during the energy transition.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2026). CAMBIOS REGULATORIOS, DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y DE MERCADO para acelerar el despliegue de energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/reporte-cambios-regulatorios-junio2026-uk-pact.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. CAMBIOS REGULATORIOS, DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y DE MERCADO para acelerar el despliegue de energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia. 2026. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/reporte-cambios-regulatorios-junio2026-uk-pact.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=CAMBIOS REGULATORIOS, DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y DE MERCADO para acelerar el despliegue de energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia |date=2026 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/reporte-cambios-regulatorios-junio2026-uk-pact.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2026cambios, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{CAMBIOS REGULATORIOS, DE PLANIFICACIÓN Y DE MERCADO para acelerar el despliegue de energías renovables no convencionales en Colombia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2026}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/reporte-cambios-regulatorios-junio2026-uk-pact.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }