Keeping the flow: hydropower, river ecosystems and governance in northern Sweden

The report examines hydropower in northern Sweden, specifically the Norrbotten region, amidst rising energy demands from 'fossil-free steel' and battery production. It highlights the shift of hydropower from baseload capacity to a flexibility and storage role to support intermittent wind and solar power. This transition, alongside industrial growth, increases the risk of 'hydropeaking'—rapid fluctuations in river flow—which threatens freshwater biodiversity and fish species like salmon and brown trout. The document analyzes the Swedish National Plan for Hydropower Permit Reviews (NAP), noting the trade-off between environmental restoration and a national production loss limit of 1.5 TWh/year. It concludes that while climate change may increase water run-off and production potential, sustainable management requires integrated economic and ecological frameworks and broader stakeholder inclusion.

• Industrial expansion in the Norrbotten region, including ventures like HYBRIT, H2 Green Steel, SSAB, LKAB, and Northvolt, is driving a steep increase in electricity demand. Estimates suggest an additional 80 TWh/year by 2028 is needed for these industries alone.
• Hydropower in Sweden is transitioning from providing baseload capacity to serving as energy storage and a flexibility resource to balance intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar power.
• The Swedish transmission grid is divided into four electricity regions (elområde) to manage physical transmission bottlenecks and comply with EU regulations.
• The National Plan for Hydropower Permit Reviews (NAP) aims to coordinate the permit review process over 20 years, but it operates under a strict national planning limit where river restoration measures should not cause more than a 2.3% loss of annual hydropower production, or 1.5 TWh/year.
• Hydropeaking—the practice of adjusting outflow to meet sub-daily electricity demand—causes artificial fluctuations in river flow that damage aquatic organisms, destroy fish habitats, and homogenize riparian vegetation.
• Hydropower regulation in Sweden has significantly altered natural flow regimes, redistributing water by 19% in an average year, which has diminished spring peak flows by 15% and increased winter flows.
• Climate change is projected to increase gross hydropower potential in northern Sweden by more than 30% by the 2070s due to predicted increases in run-off.
• There is a significant gap in current knowledge regarding how the integration of more variable energy sources will increase hydropeaking and subsequent environmental damage in Nordic rivers.
• Stakeholder mapping reveals that decision-making is concentrated at the national level among government agencies and large TSOs, often overlooking local communities and civil society.

APA

Xylia, M., Bin Ashraf, F., Rudberg, P. M., Barquet, K., & Han, G. (2024). Keeping the flow: hydropower, river ecosystems and governance in northern Sweden. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/northern-swedish-hydropower-sei2024.014.pdf

Chicago

Xylia, Maria, Faisal Bin Ashraf, Peter M. Rudberg, Karina Barquet, and Guoyi Han. Keeping the flow: hydropower, river ecosystems and governance in northern Sweden. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/northern-swedish-hydropower-sei2024.014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Xylia |first1=Maria |last2=Bin Ashraf |first2=Faisal |last3=Rudberg |first3=Peter M. |last4=Barquet |first4=Karina |last5=Han |first5=Guoyi |title=Keeping the flow: hydropower, river ecosystems and governance in northern Sweden |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/northern-swedish-hydropower-sei2024.014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{xylia2024keeping, author = {Xylia, Maria and Bin Ashraf, Faisal and Rudberg, Peter M. and Barquet, Karina and Han, Guoyi}, title = {{Keeping the flow: hydropower, river ecosystems and governance in northern Sweden}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/northern-swedish-hydropower-sei2024.014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }