Transition or lock-in? Tracking institutional support for gas in two Latin American case studies

The paper examines how institutional carbon lock-in perpetuates fossil fuel use in Latin America, specifically through case studies of gas projects in Mexico and Colombia. It argues that state-owned enterprises and regulatory bodies often approve infrastructure based on the 'bridge fuel' narrative and perceived links between gas and economic development, despite a lack of robust demand analysis or alignment with climate targets.

• Institutional carbon lock-in occurs when public and private actors create dynamics that maintain the production and use of fossil fuels, even when they contradict market trends or technological advancements.
• Many Latin American countries are expanding gas capacity without sufficient justification or demand projections under current decarbonization scenarios, which increases the risk of lock-in.
• Energy regulators frequently approve gas infrastructure based on the preconceived notions that gas is a 'clean' fuel and essential for development, often omitting evaluations of climate, environmental, and social impacts.
• State-owned enterprises (SOEs) significantly contribute to institutional carbon lock-in because they often benefit financially from the development and operation of gas infrastructure.
• In Mexico, the Tehuantepec Isthmus Cluster—comprising a trans-isthmic pipeline and underground storage with an estimated cost of US$900 million—is promoted as a tool for regional poverty reduction despite challenges in creating actual gas demand.
• Colombia's Pacific LNG Import System is viewed as a 'low-carbon buffer' to ensure electricity reliability during El Niño events, yet it has struggled to attract market interest, with multiple bidding rounds declared void.
• The 'bridge fuel' narrative from Europe and North America is being applied in Latin America without considering local technological or regulatory contexts, potentially hindering transitions to renewable energy.
• US geopolitical strategies and the shale gas boom have increased Mexico's dependence on US gas imports, which reached over 90% by 2018 and influenced the planning of projects like the Tehuantepec Isthmus Cluster.
• Existing assets and legacy contracts can justify new fossil fuel investments; for example, Mexico's CFE announced a $4.5 billion investment to utilize under-used gas transport capacity secured via take-or-pay contracts.

APA

Almeida, P. C., Strambo, C., & Arond, E. (2023). Transition or lock-in? Tracking institutional support for gas in two Latin American case studies. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/gas-lock-in-colombia-mexico.pdf

Chicago

Almeida, Patricio Calles, Claudia Strambo, and Elisa Arond. Transition or lock-in? Tracking institutional support for gas in two Latin American case studies. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/gas-lock-in-colombia-mexico.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Almeida |first1=Patricio Calles |last2=Strambo |first2=Claudia |last3=Arond |first3=Elisa |title=Transition or lock-in? Tracking institutional support for gas in two Latin American case studies |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/gas-lock-in-colombia-mexico.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{almeida2023transition, author = {Almeida, Patricio Calles and Strambo, Claudia and Arond, Elisa}, title = {{Transition or lock-in? Tracking institutional support for gas in two Latin American case studies}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/gas-lock-in-colombia-mexico.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }