ETHIOPIA’S LONG-TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2020-2050)

Ethiopia's Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy (2020-2050) establishes a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. The strategy analyzes four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), NDC-aligned, Maximum Ambition, and Late Action. It prioritizes decarbonization in energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, waste, and industrial processes (IPPU). Key pillars include expanding renewable energy, electrifying transport, enhancing carbon sinks through reforestation, and modernizing agriculture. The document emphasizes a 'just transition' through a Women and Youth in Green Jobs Program and identifies a significant financing gap, estimating a total investment requirement of USD 154 billion for the NDC-aligned scenario.

• Ethiopia aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, with the 'NDC-aligned scenario' identified as the most plausible pathway, achieving a balance of cost-effectiveness and ambition.
• Under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, total national CO2e emissions are projected to rise from 299 Mt in 2020 to approximately 558.7 Mt by 2050.
• The energy sector transition focuses on 100% renewable electricity generation by 2050, primarily through hydropower, solar PV, wind, bioenergy, and geothermal sources.
• Transport decarbonization relies on shifting from petroleum to hybrid and electric vehicles, expanding mass transit (BRT and rail), and promoting non-motorized transport (NMT).
• Agriculture and land use are the largest emission sources; mitigation strategies include improving livestock productivity, expanding perennial crops, and implementing integrated soil fertility management.
• Forestry is viewed as a critical carbon sink; the strategy targets reduced deforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration to achieve significant carbon removals.
• The waste sector will be modernized through organic waste processing (composting and anaerobic digestion), landfill gas management, and the '4R' measures (reduce, reuse, recycle, and recover energy).
• Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) mitigation focuses on reducing clinker content in cement, recycling high-quality steel scrap, and the long-term goal of implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
• The transition is projected to boost economic growth and employment, with the NDC-aligned scenario estimating a total real GDP of USD 1.01 trillion by 2050 and the creation of approximately 1.77 million green jobs by 2050.
• The NDC-aligned scenario requires a total investment of USD 154 billion (net present value) from 2020 to 2050, with 80% (USD 124 billion) expected to be conditional on international funding.
• To ensure a just transition, the strategy proposes a 'Women and Youth in Green Jobs Program' to address structural barriers such as skills mismatch, informality, and unpaid care work.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). ETHIOPIA’S LONG-TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2020-2050). https://leap.sei.org/documents/EthiopiaLTLEDS2022.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. ETHIOPIA’S LONG-TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2020-2050). n.d. https://leap.sei.org/documents/EthiopiaLTLEDS2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=ETHIOPIA’S LONG-TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2020-2050) |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/EthiopiaLTLEDS2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendethiopias, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{ETHIOPIA’S LONG-TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (2020-2050)}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/EthiopiaLTLEDS2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }