PATHWAYS TO CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CALIFORNIA

The report concludes that no single technology can achieve California's 2045 net-zero goal, requiring a diversified portfolio of electrification, carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Key findings highlight a massive required grid expansion of 130–460 GW and the critical role of Direct Air Capture (DAC) to offset hard-to-abate emissions. The analysis suggests that while a 100% carbon-free grid is the current goal, a slightly lower constraint (e.g., 99%) could significantly reduce costs and overbuilding by allowing the use of clean dispatchable power like NGCCS.

• Achieving net-zero emissions by 2045 requires a diversified technological approach; no single resource is sufficient. The necessary combination includes efficiency improvements, renewable electricity, carbon capture & storage (CCS), electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
• Approximately 80% of the emissions reductions in the CARB Proposed Scenario can be achieved through eight primary measures: direct air capture (DAC), decarbonizing light-duty vehicles (LDV), decarbonizing heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), clean electricity generation, industrial fuel switching, F-gas mitigation, decarbonizing residential buildings, and industrial CCS.
• California will require a massive increase in electricity capacity, estimated between 130 and 460 GW, to support a decarbonized future. This represents 1.5 to 6 times the current grid capacity and 4 to 15 times the capacity added since 2000.
• A strict 100% carbon-free electricity constraint by 2045 may lead to excessive overbuilding of solar and battery storage. The report suggests that a slightly lower emissions constraint would allow for the use of natural gas power with carbon capture and storage (NGCCS), achieving comparable reductions at a lower cost.
• Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are identified as a more cost-effective and affordable mitigation option than fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) for both light-duty and heavy-duty transportation. The speed of ZEV deployment is a primary driver of cumulative emissions and determines the volume of CDR needed by 2045.
• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an effective and affordable option for the industrial sector, though its competitiveness depends heavily on incentives such as 45Q and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).
• Refrigerant emissions are a significant source of GHGs and are expected to increase as heat pump installations grow. While end-of-life management is helpful, deep reductions will require the development of innovative low-GWP refrigerants.
• Reaching net-zero is considered difficult or impossible without significant engineered Direct Air Capture (DAC) or new replacement technologies. R&D is essential to reduce the cost of DAC.
• Hydrogen is currently most cost-effective for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), but overall costs are driven more by distribution and storage (D&S) than by generation costs.
• Renewable natural gas (RNG) and renewable diesel (RD) are attractive as like-for-like replacements for fossil fuels, but their utility is limited by global demand and feedstock availability, necessitating careful prioritization for hard-to-decarbonize applications.

APA

Neutel, J., Berson, A. R., Laude, E., Arifi, A., Brandt, A., Weyant, J., Saltzer, S. D., & Jr., F. O. (2024). PATHWAYS TO CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CALIFORNIA. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://leap.sei.org/documents/DECAL2024.pdf

Chicago

Neutel, Joshua, Andrew Robert Berson, Ethne Laude, Anela Arifi, Adam Brandt, John Weyant, Sarah D. Saltzer, and F.M. Orr, Jr. PATHWAYS TO CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CALIFORNIA. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://leap.sei.org/documents/DECAL2024.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{neutel2024pathways, author = {Neutel, Joshua and Berson, Andrew Robert and Laude, Ethne and Arifi, Anela and Brandt, Adam and Weyant, John and Saltzer, Sarah D. and Jr., F.M. Orr,}, title = {{PATHWAYS TO CARBON NEUTRALITY IN CALIFORNIA}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jul, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/DECAL2024.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }