Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice

The report presents a taxonomy of future global scenarios divided into three classes: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions. It argues that while current trends in population growth, economic expansion, and technological change drive the system, human agency and policy choices can steer the world away from collapse and toward a sustainable paradigm. The authors contrast 'business-as-usual' trajectories with visionary transitions that prioritize equity and ecological health over material growth.

• Within the Conventional Worlds class, the 'Reference' variant assumes a business-as-usual approach where market logic handles social and environmental stress, while the 'Policy Reform' variant assumes coordinated government action to achieve equity and environmental protection.
• The Barbarization class includes the 'Breakdown' variant, leading to institutional collapse and economic depression, and the 'Fortress World' variant, where elites protect their privileges in enclaves while the majority lives in misery and repression.
• Great Transitions scenarios, such as the 'New Sustainability Paradigm', envision a world where development is defined by equity and sustainability rather than economic growth, featuring material sufficiency and a 'New Planetary Deal' for wealth redistribution.
• Current global trends acting as driving forces include rapid population growth primarily in developing countries, rising energy and raw material consumption, and a 'double revolution' in information technology.
• There is a concerning trend of increasing economic stratification both within and between nations, with a growing percentage of global wealth accruing to the richest 20 percent of the population.
• The report warns that the Conventional Worlds-Reference path is likely unsustainable, as carbon dioxide emissions increase substantially and pressure on resources may lead to conflict over oil and water.
• The authors argue that the global system is at a 'branch point' where collective and individual choices can fundamentally alter the future trajectory, potentially avoiding barbarization through the cultivation of a new sustainability paradigm.

APA

Gallopin, G., Hammond, A., Raskin, P., & Swart, R. (1997). Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/branch_points.pdf

Chicago

Gallopin, Gilberto, Al Hammond, Paul Raskin, and Rob Swart. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1997. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/branch_points.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gallopin |first1=Gilberto |last2=Hammond |first2=Al |last3=Raskin |first3=Paul |last4=Swart |first4=Rob |title=Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1997 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/branch_points.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gallopin1997branch, author = {Gallopin, Gilberto and Hammond, Al and Raskin, Paul and Swart, Rob}, title = {{Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1997}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Future/branch_points.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }