The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5)

The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5) analyzes energy trajectories for 10 ASEAN Member States through 2040. It compares a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario with two target-based scenarios: the AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and the ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS). The report finds that while the region is on track to meet energy intensity targets, achieving the 23% renewable energy share by 2025 requires significantly more ambition than current national targets provide. It highlights a continuing heavy reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal in the power sector, and projects increasing import dependency for natural gas and crude oil. The report recommends strengthening energy efficiency and renewable energy policies, including the use of auctions and expanding renewables beyond the power sector, to improve energy security and reduce CO2 emissions.

• Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) is projected to grow from 427 Mtoe in 2015 to 1,046 Mtoe by 2040 in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, driven primarily by the industry, transport, and residential sectors.
• Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in the BAU scenario is expected to increase by a factor of 2.3, reaching 1,450 Mtoe by 2040, with oil remaining the largest fuel in the primary energy mix.
• The regional target of 23% renewable energy (RE) in TPES by 2025 is only achievable under the ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS); the BAU and ATS scenarios are projected to reach only 12.6% and 17.5% respectively.
• In the BAU scenario, installed power capacity must increase three-fold to 629 GW by 2040, with coal-based plants contributing 42.4% of the 424 GW of added capacity.
• Energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to increase 2.4 times in the BAU scenario, reaching 3,460 Mt CO2eq by 2040, though this could be reduced by 35.6% under the APS scenario.
• ASEAN will remain a net exporter of coal, primarily due to production in Indonesia and Vietnam, but will become a net importer of natural gas as demand exceeds production by 2020 (BAU), 2025 (ATS), or 2029 (APS).
• Crude oil production is projected to decline at an average rate of 1.4% per year, reaching 85 Mtoe in 2040, which will increase the region's dependency on oil imports across all scenarios.
• Regional refining capacity is projected to grow from 3.7 mbbl/d in 2015 to 7.7 mbbl/d in 2040, with the largest expansions driven by Indonesia.
• Power sector investments from 2016-2025 are estimated at USD 154.5 billion for BAU, USD 201.0 billion for ATS, and USD 214.3 billion for APS to reach the 23% RE target.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2017). The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5). https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO5.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5). 2017. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO5.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5) |date=2017 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO5.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute20175th, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO5)}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO5.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }