Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU

This SEI briefing, based on a study commissioned by Scania, argues that the European Union's heavy-duty vehicle sector can achieve greater emissions reductions by 2030 than currently planned in the "Fit for 55" package. The analysis suggests that a combined approach of energy efficiency, electrification, and biofuels could reduce emissions by 24% compared to 2019 levels.

• Combining three key measures—energy efficiency improvements, electrification, and increased biofuel deployment—could reduce heavy-duty vehicle emissions in the EU by 24% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels. This potential exceeds the reductions envisioned in the EU's "Fit for 55" package and 2030 climate target plan.
• No single emissions reduction measure is sufficient on its own; energy efficiency, electrification, and biofuels must be combined to follow the fastest pathways to net zero. If one measure underperforms, such as limited biofuel availability or failed efficiency gains, electrification must be accelerated to compensate.
• Due to long vehicle stock renewal cycles, electrification takes years to produce significant effects. To reach the estimated 2030 goals, electric vehicles would need to represent 50% of new heavy-duty truck registrations and 75% of new bus registrations (including all city buses and half of all coaches), resulting in electric vehicles making up approximately 10% of the total truck stock and 20% of the total bus stock by 2030.
• Biofuel deployment is identified as a high-impact short-term priority. Recommended actions include introducing higher biofuel blending rates (reaching 14% by 2030) and expanding the use of "drop-in" biofuels that do not require internal combustion engine modifications.

APA

Xylia, M., Gong, J., Olsson, O., & Johnson, F. X. (2021). Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf

Chicago

Xylia, Maria, Jindan Gong, Olle Olsson, and Francis X. Johnson. Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Xylia |first1=Maria |last2=Gong |first2=Jindan |last3=Olsson |first3=Olle |last4=Johnson |first4=Francis X. |title=Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{xylia2021three, author = {Xylia, Maria and Gong, Jindan and Olsson, Olle and Johnson, Francis X.}, title = {{Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }