Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU

The briefing argues that the EU's 'Fit for 55' package underestimates the decarbonization potential of the heavy-duty vehicle sector. SEI analysis indicates that simultaneous action across three key areas—energy efficiency, electrification, and biofuels—could reduce heavy-duty vehicle emissions by 24% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. The document emphasizes that no single measure is sufficient and that policymakers must balance these options to account for long vehicle stock renewal cycles and potential underperformance in specific areas.

• Combining energy efficiency improvements, electrification, and increased biofuel deployment could reduce heavy-duty vehicle emissions by 24% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels, a pace faster than the pathways suggested by the IEA and the EU.
• The EU's 'Fit for 55' package and 2030 climate target plan do not fully capture the possible emissions reductions that the heavy-duty vehicle sector could provide to help meet Paris Agreement limits.
• Achieving net-zero targets requires a combined approach because no single emissions reduction measure is sufficient on its own; if one option fails to deliver, the others must be accelerated to compensate.
• Due to long vehicle stock renewal cycles, electrification will take several years to have a significant impact. By 2030, electric vehicles are estimated to make up approximately 10% of the total truck stock and 20% of the total bus stock, assuming they represent 50% of new heavy-duty truck registrations and 75% of new bus registrations.
• Biofuels are identified as a high-impact short-term priority, specifically through the use of 'drop-in' biofuels and higher blending rates, though success depends on sustainability, availability, and policy support.

APA

Xylia, M., Gong, J., Olsson, O., & Johnson, F. X. (2021). Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf

Chicago

Xylia, Maria, Jindan Gong, Olle Olsson, and Francis X. Johnson. Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Xylia |first1=Maria |last2=Gong |first2=Jindan |last3=Olsson |first3=Olle |last4=Johnson |first4=Francis X. |title=Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{xylia2021three, author = {Xylia, Maria and Gong, Jindan and Olsson, Olle and Johnson, Francis X.}, title = {{Three keys to accelerate the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles in the EU}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/three-keys-to-net-zero-trucking.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }