Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu?

This report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute in June 2024, examines pathways for the complete decarbonisation of the gas markets in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland by 2050. Based on a study conducted between 2022 and 2023, it evaluates four scenarios—Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Methane, Renewable Hydrogen, and Cost-Minimising (CM)—to determine the most sustainable and economically viable transition from fossil fuels to renewable gases like biomethane and hydrogen.

• Full decarbonisation of the gas sectors in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania is feasible by 2050 across four analyzed scenarios.
• The Cost-Minimising (CM) scenario is identified as the most economically favorable option, offering the lowest total costs and the fastest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It is projected to provide a cumulative production benefit of 0.25% to 0.33% of regional GDP and create between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, while reducing total gas system costs by 44%.
• The Cost-Minimising scenario predicts a 100% decarbonised gas supply by 2040, relying on biomethane for 64% (23 TWh) and renewable hydrogen for 36% (14 TWh) of the supply. Achieving this requires total investments in renewable gas production and storage of 11.3 billion euros by 2050, with 88% of these costs falling on Lithuania and Finland.
• Biomethane is the most economical gas to produce in the region, with an average price of 55 euro/MWh. Latvia has the lowest production cost at approximately 44 euro/MWh because it uses bio-waste as the sole feedstock, which incurs no costs.
• Renewable hydrogen is significantly more expensive than methane, with an average regional price of 154 euro/MWh across all scenarios, making it a less attractive decarbonisation option. However, production costs are expected to drop by approximately 64% between 2030 and 2050 due to technological efficiency.
• Existing LNG terminals, particularly in Klaipėda, are sufficient to meet regional needs until 2044. These terminals can import synthetic methane and bio-LNG without modification, but the import of hydrogen derivatives like green methanol and green ammonia would require technical reconfiguration and new safety permits due to toxicity.
• To support the transition, the report recommends several policy actions: developing a regional general strategy for the Baltic states and Finland, integrating national gas markets (specifically Lithuania's transition to a single-tariff area), harmonising certification for low-carbon gases, and reviewing energy excise duties and carbon taxation.

APA

Muthukumaran, G., & Keypour, J. (2024). Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf

Chicago

Muthukumaran, Gowtham, and Javad Keypour. Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Muthukumaran |first1=Gowtham |last2=Keypour |first2=Javad |title=Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{muthukumaran2024kas, author = {Muthukumaran, Gowtham and Keypour, Javad}, title = {{Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }