Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu?

The report evaluates four decarbonisation scenarios for the Baltic-Finnish gas market, concluding that full decarbonisation by 2050 is feasible. It identifies the 'cost-minimising' (CM) scenario as the most economically viable, combining biomethane and renewable hydrogen to reduce total system costs by 44% compared to a business-as-usual approach. The analysis emphasizes the critical role of wind energy to power hydrogen production and suggests a coordinated regional strategy involving infrastructure alignment, carbon taxation, and the phase-out of fossil fuel heating in new buildings.

• Full decarbonisation of the gas sector in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania is achievable by 2050 across four analyzed scenarios.
• The cost-minimising (CM) scenario is the most economically advantageous, offering a cumulative production gain of 0.25% to 0.33% of regional GDP and creating between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
• The cost-minimising scenario predicts 100% decarbonised gas supply by 2040, consisting of 64% biomethane (23 TWh) and 36% renewable hydrogen (14 TWh).
• Total investment required for full decarbonisation under the cost-minimising scenario is 11.3 billion euros by 2050, with 88% of these costs concentrated in Lithuania and Finland.
• Renewable hydrogen production is significantly more expensive than biomethane; the average regional price for renewable hydrogen across scenarios is approximately 154 euros/MWh, while biomethane averages 55 euros/MWh.
• Substantial wind power capacity is required to meet the electricity demands of renewable hydrogen production by 2050. In the renewable hydrogen scenario, Lithuania would require 8.7 GW of onshore and 5.4 GW of offshore wind, while Finland would need 3.9 GW onshore and 3.6 GW offshore.
• Existing LNG terminals, particularly in Klaipeda, are sufficient to meet regional needs until 2044 and can be repurposed to import synthetic methane and bio-LNG without immediate reconstruction.

APA

Muthukumaran, G., & Keypour, J. (2024). Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf

Chicago

Muthukumaran, Gowtham, and Javad Keypour. Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Muthukumaran |first1=Gowtham |last2=Keypour |first2=Javad |title=Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu? |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{muthukumaran2024kas, author = {Muthukumaran, Gowtham and Keypour, Javad}, title = {{Kas ja kuidas on võimalik dekarboniseerida Balti riikide ja Soome gaasiturgu?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/sei2024.022-gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }