Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline

The analysis argues that the Keystone XL pipeline's impact on global GHG emissions may be significantly higher than previously estimated if it increases global oil supply and lowers prices, which in turn stimulates demand. The authors model three scenarios regarding whether oil sands production would reach the market via alternative transport if the pipeline were rejected. In the case where no oil would otherwise reach the market, the study finds that global oil use could increase by up to 510,000 barrels per day, leading to an annual increase in GHG emissions of up to 93 million tCO2e. This potential increase is four to five times greater than the emissions resulting from simply displacing average crude with oil-sands crude and represents roughly 10% of the U.S. government's pledged emission reductions for 2020.

• The pipeline's impact on global oil prices, while modest at less than 1%, could increase global oil demand by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. If none of the oil would otherwise reach the market, global oil use could increase by as much as 510,000 barrels per day, which is 62% of the pipeline's capacity.
• The increase in global oil consumption could boost annual greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 93 million tCO2e for most of the pipeline's 50-year lifespan. This impact is four to five times larger than the emissions associated with displacing average crude imports with oil-sands crude.
• An annual increase of 93 million tCO2e is roughly equivalent to 1–2% of current U.S. emissions and represents 10% of the emission reductions the U.S. government pledged to achieve by 2020 (a target of 17% below 2005 levels).
• The potential emissions increase from the pipeline's price effects could exceed the reductions achievable through several proposed federal climate policies for 2020, including EPA performance standards for petroleum refineries, cement kilns, and industrial boilers.

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2013). Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2013greenhouse, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }