Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline, specifically focusing on how the infrastructure might increase global oil consumption by lowering prices through increased supply.

• The authors argue that existing analyses of the Keystone XL pipeline often overlook how the project could affect the global oil market by increasing supply and decreasing prices, which in turn increases global oil consumption.
• Using a supply-and-demand model, the study finds that if no alternative transport options were available for the oil, the pipeline could increase global oil demand by as much as 510,000 barrels per day, representing 62% of the pipeline's capacity.
• The potential increase in global GHG emissions resulting from these price effects is estimated at up to 93 million tCO2e per year over the pipeline's 50-year lifespan. This figure is four to five times higher than the emissions impact of simply replacing average U.S. imported crude with oil-sands crude.
• An annual increase of 93 million tCO2e would represent approximately 1–2% of current U.S. emissions and 10% of the emission reductions the U.S. government pledged to achieve by 2020 (a target of 17% below 2005 levels).
• The paper notes that while some argue rail would replace the pipeline, there is significantly more prospective Canadian oil sands production (4.5 million barrels per day) than the pipeline's capacity of 830,000 barrels per day.

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2013). Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2013greenhouse, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{Greenhouse gas emissions implications of the Keystone XL pipeline}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-WP-2013-11-KeystoneXL-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }