Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute uses the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model to analyze the gap between current climate-economic policy recommendations and the emission reductions required to limit global warming to 2°C. The authors argue that conventional models, such as DICE, often underestimate climate damages and ignore international equity and the needs of future generations. By incorporating updated science, lower discount rates, and cross-regional investments from rich to poor countries, the CRED Optimal scenario demonstrates that it is possible to achieve a high probability of staying below 2°C while simultaneously reducing global income inequality.

• To maintain a high probability of limiting global temperature increases to 2°C, cumulative 21st-century carbon dioxide emissions must be kept below 2,000 Gt. By 2010, more than 300 Gt, or 15 percent of this total budget, had already been emitted.
• A 'Business-As-Usual' scenario, where no new climate policies are implemented, would result in cumulative emissions of 7,800 Gt for the century, leaving less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of keeping temperatures below 2.0°C.
• The 'Weak Conventional' policy scenario, which mimics the assumptions of the DICE model (including a 1.5 percent pure rate of time preference and mild damage estimates), results in 5,400 Gt of cumulative emissions and a less than 1-in-1,000 chance of staying below 2.0°C.
• Updating climate damage estimates to align with recent science—assuming a near-complete destruction of the world economy at 12°C of warming—reduces recommended cumulative 21st-century emissions to 3,900 Gt in the 'CRED Damages' scenario.
• Lowering the pure rate of time preference from 1.5 percent to 0.1 percent (the value used in the Stern Review) increases the weight given to future generations, reducing cumulative emissions to 2,500 Gt in the 'Strong Conventional' scenario.
• The 'CRED Optimal' scenario achieves the 2,000 Gt target and an 83 percent chance of staying below 2°C by allowing rich countries to invest up to 40 percent of their net output in poorer regions for both emission reduction and economic development.
• Cross-regional transfers significantly reduce global income inequality; the ratio of per capita consumption between the richest region (United States) and the poorest regions (Africa and Developing Asia/Pacific) is projected to drop from 39 in 2005 to less than 6 by 2100 under the CRED Optimal scenario.
• Recent research indicates that 'overshoot' scenarios—where temperatures temporarily exceed targets before declining—are not possible because global average temperatures will remain stuck at roughly their peak level for centuries or millennia.
• The 2010 Cancun Agreement is insufficient to close the policy gap, as voluntary pledges result in cumulative emissions only 100 Gt lower than the Business-As-Usual scenario by 2020.

APA

Stanton, E. A., Ackerman, F., & Bueno, R. (2012). Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., Frank Ackerman, and Ramón Bueno. Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Ackerman |first2=Frank |last3=Bueno |first3=Ramón |title=Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2012reason, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Ackerman, Frank and Bueno, Ramón}, title = {{Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }