Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap

The report identifies a 'policy gap' between business-as-usual emissions and the 2,000 Gt CO2 budget needed to stay below 2°C. It demonstrates how adjusting three modeling assumptions—climate damage estimates (Reason), discount rates for future generations (Empathy), and cross-regional investment (Fair Play)—transforms the recommended policy from a 'Weak Conventional' approach to a 'CRED Optimal' scenario that achieves an 83% chance of staying below 2°C while reducing global inequality.

• To maintain a high probability of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C, cumulative 21st century carbon dioxide emissions must be limited to no more than 2,000 Gt.
• Under a Business-As-Usual scenario, annual CO2 emissions are projected to grow from 30 Gt in 2000 to 130 Gt by 2100, totaling 7,800 Gt for the century and leaving less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of staying below 2°C.
• The 'Weak Conventional' policy scenario, which mimics the assumptions of the DICE model, recommends 5,400 Gt of cumulative emissions, providing less than a 1-in-1,000 chance of staying below 2°C.
• Updating climate damage functions to reflect current science—assuming a near-complete economic collapse at 12°C of warming—reduces recommended cumulative emissions to 3,900 Gt in the 'CRED Damages' scenario.
• Lowering the pure rate of time preference from 1.5% to 0.1% (as in the Stern Review) increases the weight given to future generations, reducing cumulative emissions to 2,500 Gt in the 'Strong Conventional' scenario.
• The 'CRED Optimal' scenario, which allows rich countries to invest up to 40% of their net output in poorer regions, achieves the 2,000 Gt target and offers an 83% chance of remaining below 2°C.
• Cross-regional transfers in the CRED Optimal scenario significantly reduce global income inequality; the ratio of per capita consumption between the richest region (US) and the poorest (Africa/Developing Asia) is projected to drop from 39 in 2005 to less than 6 by 2100.
• Recent research indicates that 'overshoot' scenarios are not viable because global average temperatures will not decline significantly for centuries or millennia even if CO2 concentrations are reduced.
• The 2010 Cancun Agreement is insufficient to close the policy gap, as voluntary pledges result in cumulative emissions only 100 Gt lower than Business-As-Usual by 2020.

APA

Stanton, E. A., Ackerman, F., & Bueno, R. (2012). Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., Frank Ackerman, and Ramón Bueno. Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Ackerman |first2=Frank |last3=Bueno |first3=Ramón |title=Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2012reason, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Ackerman, Frank and Bueno, Ramón}, title = {{Reason, Empathy, and Fair Play: the Climate Policy Gap}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-wp-2012-02-reason-empathy-fair-play.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }