The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation

The document examines the risk of 'double-counting' international greenhouse gas offsets, where both the buyer (developed country) and seller (developing country) count the same emission reduction toward their respective pledges. The authors argue that such accounting could dilute global climate ambition by up to 1.6 billion tons CO2e by 2020, potentially undermining the 2°C warming pathway. The brief analyzes different supply and demand scenarios and proposes policy remedies, such as buyer-only counting, credit-sharing, or the use of an international transaction log to ensure environmental integrity.

• International greenhouse gas offset credits from developing countries could be a significant component of developed countries' efforts to meet their 2020 emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements, potentially representing up to one-third of those reductions.
• There is significant uncertainty regarding accounting rules for offsets, specifically whether both the developing country generating the offset and the developed country purchasing it can count the reduction toward their pledges.
• If double-counting is not prevented, it could reduce the effective ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tons CO2e in 2020, which is approximately 10 percent of the total abatement needed to maintain a 2°C pathway.
• In a scenario where offsets count for both buyer and seller (Offsets Count Twice) under lower-ambition pledges, the United States, Europe, and other developed nations like Japan and Canada would rely on offsets for more than 25 percent of their abatement needs.
• Under a 'Buyer Only' counting scenario, offset usage is estimated to be lower (0.9 to 1.0 Gt CO2e) because developing countries like China, India, and Brazil would need to pursue more internal abatement to meet their own pledges, thereby restricting the supply of offsets.
• The authors propose several policy options to mitigate double-counting risks, including counting offsets for the buyer only, sharing credits between countries, partitioning offset sources by sector or gas, and implementing a comprehensive international transaction log (ITL).

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2011). The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2011implications, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }