The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes the impact of international greenhouse gas offsets on the fulfillment of emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements. It specifically examines the risk of 'double-counting'—where both the buyer and seller count the same emission reduction toward their targets—and how this could dilute global climate ambition and hinder the pursuit of a 2°C pathway.

• International greenhouse gas offset credits from developing countries could be a significant component of how developed countries meet their emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements, potentially representing up to one-third of those pledged reductions by 2020.
• There is significant uncertainty regarding the accounting rules for international offsets, specifically whether both the developing country generating the offset and the developed country purchasing it can count the reduction toward their respective pledges.
• If double-counting of international offsets is not prevented, it could reduce the actual ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tons of CO2e in 2020. This amount is approximately 10 percent of the total abatement required in 2020 to maintain a 2°C pathway.
• The document identifies conflicting national positions on offset accounting: the European Union maintains that offsets must be supplemental (less than 50 percent of reductions) and count only for the purchaser, while Brazil has indicated that using Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits toward its own pledge is not excluded.
• The analysis presents two primary accounting scenarios for 2020: 'Offsets Count Twice' and 'Offsets Count for Buyer Only'. In the 'Offsets Count Twice' scenario with lower-ambition pledges, the US, Europe, and other developed nations like Japan and Canada would use offsets for more than 25 percent of their abatement needs, with 1.1 Gt CO2e coming primarily from China and India.
• To mitigate double-counting and ensure environmental integrity, the authors suggest several policy options: counting offsets for the buyer only, sharing credits between buyer and seller, partitioning offset sources by sector or gas, implementing a comprehensive international transaction log (ITL), and establishing consistent, stringent offset methodologies.

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2011). The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2011implications, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{The Implications of International Greenhouse Gas Offsets on Global Climate Mitigation}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-PolicyBrief-Erickson-TheImplicationsOfInternationalGreenhouseGasOffsets-2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }