Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals

The document analyzes the climate impact of phasing out federal fossil fuel leases in the U.S. It finds that while current policies project an 11% increase in production by 2040, a 2°C pathway requires a 40–60% reduction. Ceasing new federal leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes per year by 2030, primarily through reduced coal and offshore oil production.

• U.S. fossil fuel production grew by 20% in energy terms between 2010 and 2015, with approximately 25% of total extraction and 40% of all coal coming from federal lands and waters leased by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI).
• To align with a cost-efficient 2°C warming pathway, the U.S. would need to reduce aggregate fossil fuel production by 40–60% from current levels by 2040, whereas current policies (including the Clean Power Plan) project an 11% increase by that date.
• Ending new federal leases and renewals for non-producing resources would likely cause a steady decline in U.S. coal production, while oil and gas production would decline more slowly due to longer project lead times, particularly for offshore resources.
• Phasing out federal leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes (Mt) per year by 2030. This net reduction consists of 71 Mt from reduced coal use and 31 Mt from reduced oil use, after accounting for substitution effects.
• The impact of a lease phase-out varies based on other policies; if the Clean Power Plan were not implemented, the emissions reduction from phasing out federal leases would increase to 270 Mt CO2 in 2030.

APA

Erickson, P., & Lazarus, M. (2016). Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, and Michael Lazarus. Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2016. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Lazarus |first2=Michael |title=Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2016impact, author = {Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael}, title = {{Impact of phasing out federal coal and oil leases on CO2 emissions and 2°C goals}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }