sei-pb-2016-us-fossilfuel-leases-climate-cd4cc4b1ffd6dd46.pdf

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the climate implications of ending the issuance and renewal of U.S. government leases for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands and offshore waters. The analysis suggests that such a policy could significantly reduce global CO2 emissions and align U.S. production more closely with the goals of the Paris Agreement and a 2°C warming pathway.

• U.S. fossil fuel production has increased by 20% in energy terms since 2010. Approximately 25% of all U.S. fossil fuel extraction, including 40% of all coal, takes place on federal lands and waters leased via the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI).
• To align with a cost-efficient 2°C warming pathway, the U.S. would need to reduce aggregate fossil fuel production by 40–60% from current levels by 2040. In contrast, current policies, including the Clean Power Plan, project production to increase by 11% by 2040.
• Ceasing new leases and renewals for non-producing resources would likely cause a steady decline in U.S. coal production. Oil and gas production would also decrease, though more slowly due to longer project lead times, particularly for offshore oil.
• Phasing out federal leases could reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 100 million tonnes (Mt) per year by 2030. This total consists of a net reduction of 71 Mt CO2 from restricted coal leases and 31 Mt CO2 from restricted oil leases.
• The impact of a lease phase-out varies based on other climate policies. If the Clean Power Plan were not implemented, the emissions reduction from phasing out federal leases would increase to 270 Mt CO2 in 2030, which is nearly half of the Clean Power Plan's expected savings for that year.
• The effectiveness of the policy depends on market responses. In a scenario with shrinking fossil fuel supplies and more low-cost renewables, the impact could reach 210 Mt CO2 in 2030; conversely, if other fossil fuel sources easily offset the reduction, the impact could be as low as 4 Mt CO2.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). sei-pb-2016-us-fossilfuel-leases-climate-cd4cc4b1ffd6dd46.pdf. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. sei-pb-2016-us-fossilfuel-leases-climate-cd4cc4b1ffd6dd46.pdf. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=sei-pb-2016-us-fossilfuel-leases-climate-cd4cc4b1ffd6dd46.pdf |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendseipb2016usfossilfuelleasesclimatecd4cc4b1ffd6dd46pdf, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{sei-pb-2016-us-fossilfuel-leases-climate-cd4cc4b1ffd6dd46.pdf}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2016-US-fossilfuel-leases-climate.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }