Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World

This policy brief, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute in partnership with the business leaders' initiative 3C, examines the risk of metal scarcity for low-carbon technologies. Using a custom scenario calculator, the authors analyze the future supply and demand for cobalt, lithium, neodymium, indium, and tellurium, concluding that cumulative supply deficits for several of these metals could hinder the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

• The deployment of low-carbon technologies—specifically photovoltaics, wind power, and electric and hybrid vehicles—is threatened by the scarcity of specific metals they depend on.
• Scenario modeling for five specific metals reveals varying levels of risk for cumulative supply deficits (CSD) by 2035: indium and tellurium face a severe risk in the medium and long term; neodymium faces a moderate medium-term and severe long-term risk; and cobalt and lithium face a limited long-term risk.
• The risk of metal deficits increases as climate policies become more aggressive. Specifically, the IEA 450 scenario leads to deficits for lithium and cobalt when combined with two of the three WEF scenarios.
• Most governments treat mineral scarcity as a technological challenge rather than a supply security issue, focusing on innovation and environmental sustainability. The United States, China, and Japan are noted as exceptions that focus more on securing supplies.
• Businesses employ various strategies to mitigate supply risks, including recycling, vertical integration (such as merging with mining firms), and material substitution. However, some substitutions may simply replace one scarce metal with another.
• For thin-film photovoltaic (TF PV) technologies, indium and tellurium availability is already a bottleneck. While recycling is used for cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules due to cadmium toxicity, there is insufficient tellurium currently in circulation for recycling to be a viable long-term solution.

APA

Dawkins, E., Roelich, K., Falk, R., & Chadwick, M. (2012). Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf

Chicago

Dawkins, Elena, Katy Roelich, Richard Falk, and Matthew Chadwick. Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{dawkins2012metals, author = {Dawkins, Elena and Roelich, Katy and Falk, Richard and Chadwick, Matthew}, title = {{Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }