Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World

The document identifies severe long-term supply risks for indium and tellurium, and moderate to severe risks for neodymium, which could hinder the deployment of photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles. It argues that while governments often treat mineral scarcity as a technological issue, economic and political risks are significant drivers of future deficits. Businesses are responding through recycling, vertical integration, and material substitution, though the effectiveness of these measures varies by metal and technology.

• The deployment of low-carbon technologies, specifically photovoltaics, wind power, and electric and hybrid vehicles, is threatened by the increasing scarcity of essential metals.
• Scenario modelling indicates varying levels of risk for five critical metals by 2035: indium and tellurium face severe cumulative supply deficits; neodymium faces moderate medium-term and severe long-term risk; and cobalt and lithium face limited long-term risk.
• The severity of metal deficits is closely linked to the ambition of climate policies; more aggressive emission reduction targets, such as the IEA 450 scenario, increase the projected deficits for indium, tellurium, and neodymium.
• Most governments incorrectly treat mineral scarcity as primarily a technological challenge, focusing on innovation and sustainability rather than the security of actual supplies, with the notable exceptions of China, Japan, and the United States.
• Business responses to scarcity include recycling, vertical integration, and material substitution, but these are often limited by economic viability or the risk of creating new scarcity problems with alternative materials.
• For thin-film photovoltaics, indium and tellurium are already considered bottlenecks; while recycling is used for cadmium telluride modules, some industry experts believe there is insufficient tellurium in circulation for this to be a viable long-term solution.

APA

Dawkins, E., Roelich, K., Falk, R., & Chadwick, M. (2012). Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf

Chicago

Dawkins, Elena, Katy Roelich, Richard Falk, and Matthew Chadwick. Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dawkins |first1=Elena |last2=Roelich |first2=Katy |last3=Falk |first3=Richard |last4=Chadwick |first4=Matthew |title=Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dawkins2012metals, author = {Dawkins, Elena and Roelich, Katy and Falk, Richard and Chadwick, Matthew}, title = {{Metals in a Low-Carbon Economy: Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and Business in a Finite World}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/SEI-PB-2012-3C-Metals.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }