Development without Carbon

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the relationship between economic development in low-income countries and global greenhouse gas emissions budgets. It argues that many climate-economics models rely on overly pessimistic growth projections for the poorest nations, which inadvertently weakens the urgency for high-income countries to reduce their own emissions. The author proposes three scenarios—Without Development, Development with Carbon, and Development without Carbon—to demonstrate how rapid economic growth in the developing world, if not coupled with strong decarbonization policies and funding from rich nations, could lead to a failure of global climate targets.

• The report identifies a critical risk in current climate-economics models: by assuming slow economic growth in the poorest countries, these models create a false impression of available "emissions space" for high- and middle-income countries, thereby reducing the perceived urgency for rich nations to mitigate their emissions.
• To maintain a 98-percent probability of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C, the 21st-century emissions budget is approximately 2,700 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide-equivalents (CO2-e), with 200 Gt already emitted.
• In the 'Without Development' scenario, which reflects standard growth rates in many models, 21st-century cumulative emissions reach 10,800 Gt CO2-e, with low-income countries contributing only 6 percent. This leaves a policy gap of 8,800 Gt between expected emissions and the 2°C target budget.
• The 'Development with Carbon' scenario assumes rapid economic growth similar to India's experience. In this case, cumulative 21st-century emissions rise to 20,700 Gt CO2-e, and low-income countries alone emit 4,400 Gt, which exceeds the entire global 2°C budget of 2,700 Gt.
• The 'Development without Carbon' scenario with 'strong policy' (a 0.53-percent intensity drop for every 1 percent increase in per capita income) allows for rapid growth while keeping total 21st-century emissions within the 2,700 Gt budget, with low-income countries contributing 600 Gt.
• A case study of Latin America and the Caribbean shows that cumulative 21st-century emissions would be 900 Gt CO2-e under 'Without Development', 1,800 Gt CO2-e under 'Development with Carbon', and 200 Gt under 'Development without Carbon Strong'.
• Successful decarbonization in developing regions requires specific interventions: supporting countries at risk of rising emissions per dollar (e.g., El Salvador, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago), aiding those with anomalously high intensities (e.g., Bolivia, Honduras, Guyana, Brazil), and accelerating low-cost low-carbon technology innovation.

APA

Stanton, E. A. (2011). Development without Carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A. Development without Carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |title=Development without Carbon |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2011development, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A.}, title = {{Development without Carbon}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }