Development without Carbon

The report argues that many climate-economics models rely on a 'no-development' assumption for the poorest countries, which underestimates future emissions and weakens the urgency for rich countries to reduce their own emissions. By comparing three scenarios—'Without Development', 'Development with Carbon', and 'Development without Carbon'—the author demonstrates that if low-income countries achieve rapid economic growth similar to India's, the global emissions budget will be exhausted much faster unless aggressive decarbonization policies and financial support from wealthy nations are implemented. A case study of Latin America and the Caribbean illustrates these dynamics, showing that cumulative regional emissions could double if growth accelerates without policy intervention.

• The budget required to maintain a 98-percent probability of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C is approximately 2,700 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide-equivalents (CO2-e), with 200 Gt already emitted.
• In the 'Without Development' scenario, which reflects standard growth rates in many climate models, 21st-century cumulative emissions reach 10,800 Gt CO2-e, with low-income countries contributing only 6 percent.
• The 'Development with Carbon' scenario, assuming rapid economic growth for low-income countries without policy intervention, results in cumulative emissions of 20,700 Gt CO2-e, with the poorest countries alone emitting 4,400 Gt—exceeding the entire global 2°C budget.
• The 'Development without Carbon' scenario with 'strong policy' can keep total 21st-century emissions within the 2,700 Gt budget, with low-income countries contributing 600 Gt.
• Underestimating economic growth in poor countries leads to a significant miscalculation of the 'policy gap' for rich countries: the gap increases from 8,800 Gt CO2-e in the 'Without Development' scenario to 16,300 Gt in the 'Development with Carbon' scenario.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean, cumulative 21st-century emissions are projected to be 900 Gt CO2-e under the 'Without Development' scenario, rising to 1,800 Gt CO2-e under 'Development with Carbon', and falling to 200 Gt under a 'Strong Policy' scenario.

APA

Stanton, E. A. (2011). Development without Carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A. Development without Carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |title=Development without Carbon |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=November 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2011development, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A.}, title = {{Development without Carbon}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/sei-development-without-carbon-ph1-es.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }