‘Fair shares’ and intended nationally determined contributions: What can we learn from an equity review?

This briefing by the Stockholm Environment Institute discusses the use of a systematic equity review to assess intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) for climate mitigation. Using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator, the authors demonstrate how different 'equity settings' regarding capacity and responsibility can define a country's 'fair share' of global mitigation, often revealing a gap between a nation's fair share and its domestic mitigation potential.

• The authors propose a framework to calculate national 'fair shares' of global mitigation based on a 'Responsibility and Capacity Indicator' (RCI). This RCI is derived from selected equity settings—specifically how capacity is calculated from income (progressivity) and the time frame used for historical emissions responsibility (starting in 1850, 1950, or 1990)—combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators.
• The analysis identifies two categories of countries based on their equity settings: 'Support Contributors' (wealthier, higher-emitting nations whose fair shares exceed their domestic mitigation potential) and 'Support Recipients' (poorer, lower-emitting nations that can fulfill their fair share domestically but require international support to exploit their full mitigation potential).
• For the United States, the fair share of global mitigation is so high that it cannot be achieved through domestic action alone. Under a 'strong 2°C pathway' in 2025, the U.S. would need to reduce emissions by 90% relative to 1990 levels under Low Equity settings, and more than 200% under High Equity settings, requiring international support for mitigation abroad between 2.7 and 10.3 billion tonnes CO2e.
• China's domestic mitigation potential exceeds its fair share under all tested equity settings. Consequently, the primary issue for China is the distribution of costs—specifically, what portion of its mitigation is self-funded and what portion is funded by international supporters.
• The EU-28's fair share of global mitigation exceeds its domestic capacity, requiring a reduction of more than 100% relative to 1990 levels by 2025. To meet its fair share in 2025, the EU-28 would need to provide international support for 3.1 to 5.1 billion tonnes CO2e of mitigation in other countries, alongside 2.8 billion tonnes of domestic mitigation.
• India's fair share is a small fraction of its domestic mitigation potential. Under Middle and High Equity settings, 92% and 99% of India's mitigation would need to be internationally supported, respectively, due to its projected poor majority population in 2025.
• Globally, the majority of mitigation must occur in 'Support Recipient' countries because that is where emissions are currently highest and growing fastest; roughly three-quarters of all mitigation action must take place there by 2025.
• An analysis of the EU's pledged 40% reduction by 2030 suggests it is insufficient. If other countries made comparable efforts, the total global ambition would be 9.1–12.5 billion tonnes CO2e in 2030, which is far below the 25–47 billion tonnes CO2e required by the G8, Weak 2°C, or Strong 2°C pathways.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). ‘Fair shares’ and intended nationally determined contributions: What can we learn from an equity review? https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-INDCs-equity-analysis.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. ‘Fair shares’ and intended nationally determined contributions: What can we learn from an equity review? 2014. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-INDCs-equity-analysis.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=‘Fair shares’ and intended nationally determined contributions: What can we learn from an equity review? |date=2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-INDCs-equity-analysis.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014fair, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{‘Fair shares’ and intended nationally determined contributions: What can we learn from an equity review?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-INDCs-equity-analysis.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }