Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs

The analysis concludes that climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is potentially profitable in the long term, requiring an estimated investment of 17.3 billion euros between 2021 and 2050. The majority of these costs (approximately 13.1 billion euros) would be borne by the private sector. The report emphasizes that delaying strategic decisions will increase costs and complexity. Key priorities for 2021-2030 include accelerating energy efficiency in buildings, transport, and industry, transitioning electricity and heat production to renewables, and establishing national carbon sequestration goals for the LULUCF sector. While the initial investment phase (2021-2030) will see costs exceed revenues, the long-term weighted average marginal cost is negative, meaning revenues will eventually exceed costs. The report warns that new oil shale production plants would significantly increase the risk of failing to reach climate neutrality due to added emissions and high regulatory risks.

• Achieving climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is technically possible and potentially profitable in the long term, provided there are strategically smart investments across the private, public, and non-profit sectors.
• The estimated investment required for climate neutrality between 2021 and 2050 is approximately 17.3 billion euros, assuming 85% of analyzed measures are fully implemented. This figure is not an additional cost compared to the previous goal of 80% emission reduction, as that goal already required extensive investments in energy, efficiency, and transport.
• The funding for these investments is split between the private sector (approximately 13.1 billion euros) and the public sector (approximately 4.2 billion euros), representing a ratio of 76% private and 24% public funding.
• The economic impact is characterized by high initial costs during the investment phase (2021-2030), but the long-term weighted average marginal cost is negative, indicating that total revenues will eventually exceed total costs.
• To reach climate neutrality, Estonia must rely on the LULUCF sector or strategic CCS/CCU technologies, as total zero emissions are unlikely in agriculture, transport, and industry. To ensure carbon sequestration, forest harvesting volumes should decrease from 12 million m3/year to approximately 10 million m3/year in the early 2020-2050 period, and to 8 million m3/year by the end of the period.
• The construction of additional oil shale production and pre-refining plants is viewed as a high risk that would significantly hinder the achievement of climate neutrality by increasing emissions and exposing the state to regulatory and economic risks.
• Priority actions for 2021-2030 include accelerating energy efficiency in buildings, transport, and industry; transitioning electricity and heat to renewables; and agreeing on a national carbon sequestration goal for the LULUCF sector.

APA

Meeliste, S., & Tammiste, L. (2019). Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf

Chicago

Meeliste, Siim, and Lauri Tammiste. Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Meeliste |first1=Siim |last2=Tammiste |first2=Lauri |title=Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1 October 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{meeliste2019eesti, author = {Meeliste, Siim and Tammiste, Lauri}, title = {{Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }