Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs

This report analyzes the feasibility and costs of Estonia achieving climate neutrality by 2050. It concludes that the goal is technically and strategically possible, requiring an estimated investment of 17.3 billion euros between 2021 and 2050, with the majority funded by the private sector. The analysis emphasizes that early action in energy efficiency and renewable energy is critical to avoid higher future costs and risks.

• Achieving climate neutrality in Estonia by 2050 is potentially profitable in the long term, provided there are technically and strategically sound investments across the private, public, and non-profit sectors.
• The estimated investment required for climate neutrality between 2021 and 2050 is approximately 17.3 billion euros, based on the full implementation of about 85% of analyzed measures. This figure is not an additional cost compared to the previous goal of 80% emission reduction, as that goal already required extensive investments in energy, efficiency, and transport. If Estonia relied on large-scale electricity imports instead of domestic production, the investment need would decrease by approximately 30-50%.
• Investment is split between the private sector (approximately 13.1 billion euros, or 76% of the total) and the public sector (approximately 4.2 billion euros, or 24% of the total). Annual investments as a share of GDP are projected to be around 4% in the 2021-2030 decade, 2% in 2031-2040, and less than 1% in 2041-2050.
• The economic impact of the measures is projected to be positive overall, with revenues exceeding costs over the long term. While the first decade (2021-2030) will see higher cash outflows due to the investment phase, subsequent decades will see operating revenues exceed costs. The transition is expected to create jobs in construction, machinery installation, retail, and IT, though it may lead to a decrease in GDP, primarily due to the decarbonization of the transport sector and associated loss of tax revenues.
• Total emissions in 2050 are projected at 2.25 Mt CO2 equivalent if energy emissions are near zero. To achieve neutrality, these must be compensated by the LULUCF sector (forestry and land use) or strategic CCS/CCU technologies. To ensure carbon sequestration, logging volumes would need to drop from the current 12 million m3/year to approximately 10 million m3/year in the early 2020-2050 period and to 8 million m3/year toward the end of the period.
• The report warns that building additional oil shale production and pre-refining plants would increase the risk of failing to reach climate neutrality by adding 1 Mt CO2 equivalent to 2050 emissions. Such investments carry high regulatory and economic risks, including potential EU or global restrictions on fossil fuels and rising CO2 prices.
• Priority actions for 2021-2030 include: 1) accelerating energy efficiency investments in buildings, transport, and industry; 2) transitioning electricity and heat production to renewables and increasing low-carbon fuels in transport; and 3) agreeing on a national carbon sequestration goal for the LULUCF sector within the forestry development plan.

APA

Meeliste, S., & Tammiste, L. (2019). Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf

Chicago

Meeliste, Siim, and Lauri Tammiste. Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Meeliste |first1=Siim |last2=Tammiste |first2=Lauri |title=Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1 October 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{meeliste2019eesti, author = {Meeliste, Siim and Tammiste, Lauri}, title = {{Eesti kliimaambitsiooni tõstmise võimaluste analüüs}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/memo-lisa-1-kliimaambitsiooni-uuring-01.10.2019-lõplik-lõplik.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }