Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador

This 1999 report analyzes the economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in Ecuador, forecasting CO2 emission trends up to 2030. It highlights a history of economic instability and a heavy reliance on oil, while proposing a mitigation scenario that could reduce CO2 emissions by 15 million tons. The study finds that the industry sector offers the highest mitigation potential, while the transport sector is the most difficult to abate. It also examines the sensitivity of various economic sectors to energy price increases, noting that the chemical and power sectors are most vulnerable.

• The report identifies a 'reform-conflict-regression' cycle in Ecuador's state policy, driven by unstable and fragmented political parties, which has discouraged investment and led to the country being viewed as 'high-risk'.
• Ecuador's GDP growth was highly uneven between 1986 and 1997, fluctuating between 2% and 5%, with the period characterized as a 'lost decade' due to stagnation in trade, transportation, and manufacturing.
• The investment rate in the Ecuadorian economy declined significantly following the debt crisis of 1983, dropping from over 20% in the 1974-1982 period to approximately 14% between 1986 and 1997.
• The report forecasts that oil export earnings for Ecuador are unlikely to rise in terms of prices, as there are no prospects for a major increase in international oil and gas prices.
• Under the reference scenario, CO2 emissions per capita are forecast to increase by a factor of 2.4 compared to 1995 levels (1.4 ton CO2). In the mitigation scenario, emissions per capita are expected to rise to 2.5 ton CO2/capita by 2030.
• The mitigation scenario achieves total CO2 reductions of 15 million tons by the end of the period. Reductions are split almost evenly between direct fuel consumption (48%) and power generation emissions induced by electricity savings (52%).
• The industry sector provides the largest contribution to CO2 reductions in the mitigation scenario (30%), followed by services (21%) and households (20%). Despite high total emissions, the transport sector only contributes 17% to reductions.
• The report identifies the most cost-effective CO2 reduction option as household lighting, with a cost of 1.5 $/ton CO2. The most expensive option is gasoline vehicles in the transport sector, costing 263 $/ton CO2.
• An input-output price model indicates that the chemical products sector is the most sensitive to fuel price increases. A 50% rise in average oil product prices would affect the chemical sector by 47.9% and the power generation sector by 41.4%.
• The report notes that while developed countries have improved local environments, developing countries are seeing worsening environments due to growing pollution and inadequate exploitation of natural resources, specifically forests.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (1999). Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Ecuador.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador. 1999. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Ecuador.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador |date=1999 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Ecuador.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute1999economics, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Economics of Greenhouse Gas Limitations COUNTRY STUDY SERIES Ecuador}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1999}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Ecuador.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }