POLICY BRIEF

The document analyzes China's high carbon intensity and rapidly increasing per capita emissions, noting that China was one of the world's largest emitters in 2005. It highlights a reversal in the trend of falling energy intensity relative to GDP growth since 2000. While current policies aim for a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010, the brief argues that further mitigation and a proactive approach in climate negotiations are required to keep global temperature rise within 2 °C. It also identifies the 2008 financial crisis as a strategic window to redirect investment toward energy conservation and renewables to avoid locking in energy-intensive infrastructure.

• China was one of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters in 2005, with emissions primarily driven by fossil fuels. The country's carbon intensity is exceptionally high by international standards, and without significant improvement, achieving the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 2 °C will be impossible.
• China's per capita emissions are currently above the global average but only 25% of the level in the United States. However, if China maintains its 2007 energy use growth rate of 8% and the EU achieves its 20% reduction target, China's per capita CO2 emissions could be double those of the EU by 2020.
• While China accounts for less than 10% of historical cumulative emissions since 1900, its share is growing rapidly. It could reach its global population share of 20% as early as the 2020s if current emission trends continue.
• China's energy intensity trend reversed after 2000; previously, from the early 1980s to the late 1990s, energy intensity grew at only half the rate of GDP. Currently, China and most of its provinces are near or above the 90th percentile of CO2 intensities, defined as 0.8 tons of CO2 emission per 1,000 US dollars purchasing power parity.
• Current Chinese climate policies, motivated by energy security, target a 20% reduction in energy intensity by 2010. If successful, this would be the largest policy-driven CO2 reduction globally, potentially avoiding 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2010 alone.
• The 2008 financial crisis caused a rapid decrease in power generation, providing a potential 'breathing space' and an opportunity to redirect investment toward energy conservation. Such a shift could reduce China's energy intensity by 5% or more.
• China's rapidly increasing emissions are weakening its position in international climate negotiations, shifting its role from a victim of other countries' emissions to a leading contributor.

APA

Olsson, M. (n.d.). POLICY BRIEF. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/New_economics_for_sustainable_development/china-greenhouse-challenge.pdf

Chicago

Olsson, Marie. POLICY BRIEF. Stockholm Environment Institute, n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/New_economics_for_sustainable_development/china-greenhouse-challenge.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Olsson |first1=Marie |title=POLICY BRIEF |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/New_economics_for_sustainable_development/china-greenhouse-challenge.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{olssonndpolicy, author = {Olsson, Marie}, title = {{POLICY BRIEF}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Rethinking-development/New_economics_for_sustainable_development/china-greenhouse-challenge.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }