Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results

The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) is a policy analysis tool developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to model energy demand for appliances and equipment in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. It projects energy consumption from 2005 to 2030 across 12 individual countries and the European Union, covering approximately 62% of global final energy demand (increasing to 77% if China is included). The model utilizes a modified Kaya identity—Energy = (Activity × Intensity) / Efficiency—and is implemented via the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. BUENAS evaluates three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Recent Achievements (modeling MEPS implemented or announced between 2010 and 2011), and Best Practice (assuming the adoption of the world's most stringent standards by 2015). Results indicate that the Best Practice scenario could reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 988 mt by 2030, with the most significant electricity savings projected in the residential (27%) and commercial (22%) sectors.

• BUENAS covers 12 individual countries and the 27 Member States of the European Union as a single entity, representing 62% of global final energy demand based on 2005 IEA data, which would rise to 77% if China were integrated.
• The model's scope includes residential end uses (such as air conditioning, refrigeration, and lighting), commercial building end uses (air conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, space heating, and laundry), and industrial electric motors over 750 kW and distribution transformers.
• The 'Best Practice Scenario' projects that by 2030, total emissions reductions for the covered equipment would be approximately 988 mt of CO2, which is roughly 4.5 times the savings achieved since January 2010.
• Under the Best Practice Scenario, electricity savings are most significant in the residential sector (27% reduction) and the commercial sector (22% reduction) compared to 2030 demand.
• The United States and the European Union are projected to have the highest energy savings in the Recent Achievements Scenario due to their economic size, the volume of efficiency activities, and better data availability.
• The model employs different activity estimation methods based on data availability: unit sales flows, ownership rates, or econometric modeling driven by macroeconomic trends (GDP per household, urbanization, and electrification).
• The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario assumes 'frozen efficiency' from 2010 onwards, meaning the efficiency of new products remains constant unless specific market-driven projections are available.

APA

McNeil, M. A., Letschert, V. E., du Can, S. D. L. R., & Ke, J. (2012). Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/BUENAS.pdf

Chicago

McNeil, Michael A., Virginie E. Letschert, Stephane de la Rue du Can, and Jing Ke. Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/BUENAS.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McNeil |first1=Michael A. |last2=Letschert |first2=Virginie E. |last3=du Can |first3=Stephane de la Rue |last4=Ke |first4=Jing |title=Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=April 2012 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/BUENAS.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mcneil2012bottomup, author = {McNeil, Michael A. and Letschert, Virginie E. and du Can, Stephane de la Rue and Ke, Jing}, title = {{Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System – Methodology and Results}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/BUENAS.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }