NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TRANSPORT SECTORS

This report provides a forward-looking scenario analysis of energy efficiency (EE) policies in Estonia's residential, tertiary, and transport sectors up to 2030. Using LEAP software and a Decision Support Tool (DST), it compares a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario against various EE scenarios to determine the measures required to meet European Union targets. The analysis identifies critical socio-economic barriers and proposes policy instruments, such as large-scale building renovations and fiscal incentives for fuel-efficient vehicles, to bridge the gap between current trends and policy goals.

• In the buildings sector, the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario indicates that a 19% reduction in energy consumption is still required to meet the EU 2030 target of 1.23 Mtoe. The most effective path to achieving this is through large-scale building renovations, specifically targeting 40% of single-family dwellings and 50% of multi-family dwellings by 2030.
• The EE-B0 scenario for buildings, which assumes the implementation of additional measures without considering barriers, successfully meets the EU 2030 targets for both energy consumption (1.23 Mtoe) and GHG emissions (0.37 MtCO2), with the latter being 5% lower than the target.
• The primary barriers impeding energy efficiency in Estonia's buildings sector are economic, specifically the lack of financial support, high costs and risks, and misleading energy or fuel prices.
• In the transport sector, the BAU scenario projects an 18% growth in energy demand from 2010 to 2030, which would fail to meet national and EU targets and result in GHG emissions 29.5% higher than the non-ETS target.
• The combined EE-T0 scenario for transport reduces energy consumption by 7.3% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, meeting the 2020 targets (10% lower than target) and closely meeting the 2030 targets (0.1% lower than target).
• The most significant energy efficiency gains in the transport sector are driven by the adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles, including electric and hybrid models. Other priorities include integrated urban planning to manage personal mobility, freight demand management, modal shift in passenger transport, and eco-driving.
• Major barriers in the transport sector include a lack of financial and fiscal incentives, investment schemes that prioritize car-based solutions, perverse employee benefits for car use, insufficient public transport infrastructure investment, and a lack of integrated governance in urban planning and mobility.
• To overcome transport barriers, the report recommends implementing CO2-based car registration and annual circulation taxes, improving public transport services and cycling infrastructure to encourage modal shift, and promoting eco-driving.

APA

Kirsimaa, K., Jüssi, M., & Kuusk, K. (2017). NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/annex-2-heron-wp4-d-4-1-ee.pdf

Chicago

Kirsimaa, Kerli, Mari Jüssi, and Kalle Kuusk. NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TRANSPORT SECTORS. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2017. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/annex-2-heron-wp4-d-4-1-ee.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kirsimaa |first1=Kerli |last2=Jüssi |first2=Mari |last3=Kuusk |first3=Kalle |title=NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TRANSPORT SECTORS |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=5 May 2017 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/annex-2-heron-wp4-d-4-1-ee.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kirsimaa2017national, author = {Kirsimaa, Kerli and Jüssi, Mari and Kuusk, Kalle}, title = {{NATIONAL REPORTS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY POLICY SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR THE RESIDENTIAL AND TRANSPORT SECTORS}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/annex-2-heron-wp4-d-4-1-ee.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }