A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future

The document argues that current political emission targets are insufficient to prevent devastating climate impacts and that global GHG emissions must decline rapidly after 2015 to reach essentially zero by midcentury. It asserts that while such a transition is technically feasible and economically affordable, it requires a 'Great Transformation' of institutions and policy, including a global climate fund and a shift in agricultural systems from emission sources to sinks. The report emphasizes that industrialized nations must reduce their emission allocations to zero or negative levels by 2020-2030 to allow developing countries the remaining carbon budget necessary to expand energy access and alleviate poverty.

• To maintain a 75 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2°C, global greenhouse gas emissions must decline extremely rapidly after 2015 and reach essentially zero by 2050.
• Current emission pathways that peak in 2020 and decline to 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 are insufficient, posing a risk greater than 50 per cent that warming will exceed 2°C.
• Energy transformations toward a low-carbon future are technologically possible and economically viable, with aggregate losses for the century estimated to be below 2.5 per cent of Gross World Product.
• Industrialized countries' emission allocations must decline to zero or become negative between 2020 and 2030 to provide developing countries with a sufficient share of the remaining global carbon dioxide budget, which is less than 1000 billion tons.
• Agricultural land use systems, which contribute 17-30 per cent of global GHG emissions, must be transformed from a net source of emissions into a net global sink to support a world population of approximately 9 billion by 2050.
• Reducing CO2 is insufficient alone; targeting the other 45 per cent of climate forcing—including methane, HFCs, lower-atmosphere ozone, and black carbon aerosols—is critical to forestalling abrupt climate change.
• Regional analyses indicate that the EU could achieve 40 per cent emission reductions by 2020 through domestic action, while China and India can maintain economic growth and energy access while bending their emission trajectories.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/a20copenhagen20prognosis.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/a20copenhagen20prognosis.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/a20copenhagen20prognosis.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendcopenhagen, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate-mitigation-adaptation/a20copenhagen20prognosis.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }