World entering commodities supercycle

The briefing discusses the sharp increase in agricultural and mining commodity prices since 2020, noting that while a 'supercycle' is debated, the trend threatens the Glasgow climate agreement's deforestation goals and food security in low-income countries. It highlights the critical role of scarce commodities like copper for electrification and warns that high fertilizer costs may impact 2022 harvests.

• Commodity prices for mining and agriculture have risen sharply since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, leading to a debate over whether the world is entering a long-term commodity supercycle.
• The transition to a low-carbon economy depends on currently scarce commodities, with copper consumption specifically projected to more than double by 2050 due to its necessity for electrification.
• High gas prices have increased the cost of fertilizers, leading to warnings about 2022 harvests and prompting some countries to ban exports of ammonia and fertilizer.
• Surging prices for agricultural commodities threaten the deforestation goals of the Glasgow climate agreement; high prices may drive the expansion of agriculture into native vegetation or necessitate a shift in demand market behavior to meet net-zero targets.
• Persistently high commodity prices threaten acute food security in low-income countries that rely on cheap food imports, potentially forcing these nations to clear more land for subsistence crops.

APA

Gardner, T. (2021). World entering commodities supercycle. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/world-entering-commodities-supercycle

Chicago

Gardner, Toby. World entering commodities supercycle. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/perspectives/world-entering-commodities-supercycle.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gardner |first1=Toby |title=World entering commodities supercycle |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=20 December 2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/perspectives/world-entering-commodities-supercycle |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gardner2021world, author = {Gardner, Toby}, title = {{World entering commodities supercycle}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/perspectives/world-entering-commodities-supercycle}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }