Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Using the Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the study projects that while the Gilgel Abay River may experience a decrease in precipitation and flow volume between 2010 and 2040, these trends are expected to reverse with significant increases by 2070-2100. Overall, climate change is projected to increase annual flow volume, potentially benefiting small-scale irrigation and dam projects, though low flow conditions are expected to remain largely unaffected.

• Precipitation patterns for the Gilgel Abay River are projected to fluctuate over the 21st century, with a potential decrease of approximately 30% in mean monthly precipitation between 2010 and 2040, followed by an increase of more than 30% between 2070 and 2100.
• Mean monthly flow volumes are expected to drop by 40% to 50% from 2010 to 2040, but are projected to more than double by 2070-2100, leading to an overall annual increase in flow volume for the river.
• Climate change is expected to have a negligible effect on low flow conditions, but seasonal mean flow volumes are projected to increase by over 100% during the Belg (small rainy season) and by 30% to 40% during the Kiremit (main rainy season).
• The projected increase in river flow is expected to be significant for local small-scale irrigation and the capacity to harness water for existing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2013). Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. 2013. https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia |date=24 October 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2013hydrological, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }