Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This research paper assesses the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River in Ethiopia's Upper Blue Nile Basin using the Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The study projects fluctuating precipitation and flow volumes between 2010 and 2100, ultimately predicting an overall annual increase in flow volume that could benefit local irrigation and dam projects.

• Projections for annual mean precipitation indicate a decrease during the first 30-year period (2010-2040), followed by increases in the subsequent two 30-year periods.
• Mean monthly precipitation is projected to decrease by approximately 30% between 2010 and 2040, while it may increase by more than 30% between 2070 and 2100.
• Mean monthly flow volume is expected to decrease by 40% to 50% from 2010 to 2040, but may more than double by 2070-2100, leading to an overall annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River.
• Climate change is expected to have a negligible effect on low flow conditions, but seasonal mean flow volumes may increase by more than double for the Belg (small rainy season) and by 30% to 40% for the Kiremit (main rainy season).
• The projected increase in flow is expected to be significant for local small-scale irrigation and for the harnessing of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2013). Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. 2013. https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia |date=24 October 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2013hydrological, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River in the Lake Tana Basin Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/hydrological-response-to-climate-change-for-gilgel-abay-river-in-the-lake-tana-basin-upper-blue-nile-basin-of-ethiopia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }