Scenarios, Vulnerability and Diversity

The research introduces a method to reduce the large volume of scenarios generated by computer simulations into a manageable set for decision support. By integrating two distinct approaches—one focusing on policy vulnerabilities and the other on a diverse range of futures—the authors create a systematic selection process. This method was applied to climate resilient infrastructure planning for the Volta, Orange, and Zambezi river basins in Africa, demonstrating that a stepwise introduction of selection criteria allows for a transparent analysis of how different priorities influence scenario choice.

• The paper introduces a new optimization-based method that integrates two previously separate approaches for scenario selection: one that identifies scenarios illuminating policy vulnerabilities and another that ensures a diverse range of futures.
• Applying the method to climate resilient infrastructure for the Volta, Orange, and Zambezi river basins suggests that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria offers a transparent and systematic way to select scenarios.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2016). Scenarios, Vulnerability and Diversity. https://www.sei.org/publications/scenarios-vulnerability-and-diversity/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Scenarios, Vulnerability and Diversity. 2016. https://www.sei.org/publications/scenarios-vulnerability-and-diversity/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Scenarios, Vulnerability and Diversity |date=9 July 2016 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/scenarios-vulnerability-and-diversity/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2016scenarios, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Scenarios, Vulnerability and Diversity}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/scenarios-vulnerability-and-diversity/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }