Global Environmental Scenarios

The paper evaluates the quality of six major global scenario sets using scenario diversity analysis, a quantitative method designed to assess how well a set of scenarios covers the space of future possibilities. While the results indicate that the assessed sets perform relatively well in terms of diversity, the authors highlight a potential trade-off between the breadth of future possibilities covered and the introduction of redundancy within the sets, particularly when using classic scenario architecture methods.

• The six major global scenario sets examined in the study demonstrate relatively good performance in terms of scenario set diversity.
• The use of traditional methods for constructing scenario architectures and the quantity of scenarios in a set may create a conflict between maximizing the range of future possibilities and creating redundant scenarios.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2024). Global Environmental Scenarios. https://www.sei.org/publications/global-environmental-scenarios/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Global Environmental Scenarios. 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/global-environmental-scenarios/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Global Environmental Scenarios |date=23 April 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/global-environmental-scenarios/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2024global, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Global Environmental Scenarios}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/global-environmental-scenarios/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }