Navigating the Winds of Change

This research paper examines how 'weak signals' of change can act as super-nodes to amplify systemic disruption across socioecological systems. Using a mixed-methods approach involving a global Delphi survey and influence mapping, the study argues that anticipatory governance should prioritize high-centrality signals to mitigate cascading risks to planetary health, economic, and technological systems.

• The study argues that traditional planning based on linear extrapolations from well-known global or mega-trends is insufficient for addressing the intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century, which are destabilizing socioecological systems.
• Using a mixed-methods design, the researchers conducted a global Delphi survey with 790 participants from 132 countries, resulting in 1,200 horizon-scan items coded into 29 clusters. Through scenario stress-testing and a 20 x 20 influence matrix with a 10,000-run bootstrap test, the study identified statistically significant hubs among 20 shortlisted weak signals.
• The results indicate that anticipatory governance can be improved by institutionalizing continuous weak-signal scanning and prioritizing signals with high centrality to prevent cascading risks across technological, economic, and planetary-health systems.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2026). Navigating the Winds of Change. https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Navigating the Winds of Change. 2026. https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Navigating the Winds of Change |date=27 March 2026 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2026navigating, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Navigating the Winds of Change}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }