Navigating the Winds of Change

The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including a global Delphi survey and scenario stress-testing, to identify 'weak signals' of change that could trigger systemic disruption. The authors argue that moving beyond linear extrapolations of mega-trends toward anticipatory governance and strategic foresight is essential for maintaining planetary health and economic resilience in an era of converging crises.

• Traditional planning methods that rely on linear extrapolations from established global mega-trends are insufficient for addressing the intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century.
• The study's methodology—utilizing a Delphi survey of 790 participants across 132 countries and a 10,000-run bootstrap test—indicates that anticipatory governance can be improved by focusing on high-centrality weak signals and institutionalizing continuous scanning to prevent cascading risks in technological, economic, and planetary-health systems.
• Strategic foresight and informed anticipation are presented as critical imperatives for achieving a resilient future and a global common good amidst disruptions such as climate change, pandemics, geopolitical upheaval, and the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2026). Navigating the Winds of Change. https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Navigating the Winds of Change. 2026. https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Navigating the Winds of Change |date=27 March 2026 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2026navigating, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Navigating the Winds of Change}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/navigating-the-winds-of-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }