Transitions Model for Sustainable Mobility

The paper introduces a dual-level agent-based and system dynamics model to evaluate transitions to sustainable mobility. Using UK data, the model indicates that while Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles may dominate in the long term (post-2030), biofuels and ICE-electric hybrids are the primary short-to-medium term alternatives due to existing development and infrastructure compatibility. The findings suggest that technological transitions are more probable than lifestyle change transitions, which require sustained environmental pressure and consumer behavioural shifts.

• Based on UK data, the model predicts that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) will eventually dominate, but only after 2030. In the interim period of 10–30 years, biofuels and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)-electric hybrids are the primary alternatives to the current regime because they are already developed and align better with existing infrastructures.
• The model indicates that transitions driven by technology are the most likely to occur. In contrast, transitions based on lifestyle changes are dependent on behavioural changes from consumers and sustained environmental pressure on society.
• The modelling approach is characterized by the combination of system dynamics structure and agent-based modelling techniques, featuring a unique two-level agent system consisting of a small number of complex agents (subsystems within society) and a larger number of simple agents.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2010). Transitions Model for Sustainable Mobility. https://www.sei.org/publications/transitions-model-sustainable-mobility/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Transitions Model for Sustainable Mobility. 2010. https://www.sei.org/publications/transitions-model-sustainable-mobility/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Transitions Model for Sustainable Mobility |date=8 January 2010 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/transitions-model-sustainable-mobility/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2010transitions, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Transitions Model for Sustainable Mobility}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2010}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/transitions-model-sustainable-mobility/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }