Lower-middle-income population at risk in 2022

This report chapter analyzes the growth of the lower-middle-income population in high-impact countries in 2022, highlighting the risks associated with their potential purchase of inefficient cooling devices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on income levels.

• In 2022, the lower-middle-income population in high-impact countries grew by 108.8 million, reaching a total of 2.39 billion people. This group is defined as those living outside of rural and urban poverty but on less than USD 10.01 per day. There is a concern that this group may purchase affordable but inefficient air conditioners or refrigerators, which could lead to a significant rise in energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
• The COVID-19 pandemic reversed a previous downward trend in the lower-middle-income population, returning levels to those seen in 2018. In 2021, the pandemic caused an estimated 165 million additional people globally to live on less than USD 5.50 per day, with 82 million in South Asia and 15 million in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• India, China, and Indonesia had the highest absolute numbers of lower-middle-income populations, with India seeing an increase of approximately 45.2 million people. The most significant relative increases were found in Papua New Guinea (19.2%), Iran (13.4%), and Sudan (9.6%). Conversely, Mozambique experienced the largest reduction in this population segment, decreasing by approximately 18.2%.
• Asia and the Middle East contain the vast majority of the lower-middle-income population in high-impact countries, accounting for 81% of the global total (1.94 billion people). This regional population grew by nearly 100 million in the last year and 158 million since 2020. The highest proportional increases occurred in Iran (13.4%), Sri Lanka (9.6%), and Iraq (8.7%).
• In Africa, 31 high-impact countries represent about 15% of the global lower-middle-income population, totaling 361.1 million people in 2022. Egypt and Nigeria have the largest populations in this group, while Algeria, Morocco, and Sudan each have over 20 million. In contrast, the lower-middle-income population is below 3% in the Congo (DR), Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and Somalia.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean, the lower-middle-income population grew by 6.6 million to reach 88 million in 2022, representing 3.7% of the global total. Brazil saw the largest absolute increase with approximately 5 million more people, while Argentina and Peru increased by 400,000 and 130,000 people respectively. Paraguay's lower-middle-income population decreased by 3%.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (2022). Lower-middle-income population at risk in 2022. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/lower-middle-income-population-at-risk

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. Lower-middle-income population at risk in 2022. 2022. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/lower-middle-income-population-at-risk.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=Lower-middle-income population at risk in 2022 |date=2022 |url=https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/lower-middle-income-population-at-risk |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforall2022lowermiddleincome, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{Lower-middle-income population at risk in 2022}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/lower-middle-income-population-at-risk}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }