South Africa’s Nuclear Future

The document examines South Africa's intention to build a fleet of six new nuclear power stations to add 9,600 MW of capacity by 2020. It highlights the drivers of this expansion—including population growth, ageing infrastructure, and climate targets—while raising significant concerns regarding the financial stability of Eskom, the opacity of the tender process, and the rise of resource nationalism concerning uranium. The paper also details South Africa's nuclear diplomacy within Africa and its relations with global nuclear powers like Russia and France.

• South Africa plans to expand its power generation capacity by building a 'fleet' of six new nuclear power stations, which are expected to add 9,600 MW by 2020.
• The drive for nuclear expansion is fueled by rapid population growth, an ageing energy infrastructure, an energy-intensive socio-economic development agenda, and the need to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets.
• South Africa is exhibiting increased 'resource nationalism,' specifically by declaring uranium a 'strategic mineral' to secure domestic supplies for 40–60 years and exploring the re-establishment of domestic uranium enrichment to reduce foreign dependence.
• There are significant concerns regarding the financial and managerial capacity of Eskom, the state-owned utility tasked with operating the new plants, including a credit rating downgrade by Moody's in October 2012.
• The nuclear procurement process is criticized for a lack of transparency and potential for corruption, with parallels drawn to the 'arms deal' and noted irregularities in existing energy tenders involving politically connected entities like Chancellor House Holdings.
• South Africa's nuclear diplomacy focuses on peaceful uses and non-proliferation, leading the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (Afcone) and supporting the 'inalienable right' of developing states to develop nuclear energy, which has manifested as support for Iran.
• Public opinion in South Africa is characterized by a lack of knowledge about nuclear technology, with a 2011 survey showing only 23% of respondents approved of nuclear energy.
• The government's nuclear ambitions face internal contradictions, as the National Planning Commission's National Development Plan (NDP) warned that an 'in-depth investigation into the financial viability of nuclear energy was vital' before proceeding.
• Nuclear security concerns persist, evidenced by a security breach at Necsa’s Pelindaba facility in April 2012 and the discovery of radioactive material at a scrap metal recycling company in Cape Town in November 2012.

APA

van Wyk, J.-A. (2013). South Africa’s Nuclear Future. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Occasional-Paper-150.pdf

Chicago

van Wyk, Jo-Ansie. South Africa’s Nuclear Future. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2013. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Occasional-Paper-150.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Wyk |first1=Jo-Ansie |title=South Africa’s Nuclear Future |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2013 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Occasional-Paper-150.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanwyk2013south, author = {van Wyk, Jo-Ansie}, title = {{South Africa’s Nuclear Future}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2013}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Occasional-Paper-150.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }