The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) analyzes how the expansion of the European Union (EU) from 15 to 25 members affects South Africa's trade strategy. It examines the internal dynamics of the EU, specifically regarding agricultural policy and budgetary pressures, and provides strategic recommendations for South Africa's engagement with the WTO, the US, and regional African integration.

• EU enlargement is expected to strengthen the group of liberalisation advocates within the EU, as aggressive liberalisers from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) join countries like Britain and Ireland. This shift, combined with budgetary pressures from aging populations in Western Europe, may promote long-term liberalising reforms in resource transfers and taxation.
• The authors argue that CEE accession countries are likely to support the status quo of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to maintain resource transfers and subsidies. This suggests that the EU will be resistant to reducing domestic agricultural support in the medium-term, though there may be a short-term window for tariff liberalisation.
• The EU's 'everything but institutions' initiative for North Africa and the use of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) may decouple North Africa from sub-Saharan Africa. This process is expected to diminish the cohesion and purpose of the ACP grouping by 2008, potentially reducing ACP unity in WTO negotiations.
• EU enlargement may lead the United States to pursue external trade preferences more aggressively in Asia, Latin America (via the FTAA), and select African countries. This could provide the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) with increased leverage in its FTA negotiations with the US by expanding the range of possible trade-offs.
• South Africa is advised to pursue a more liberal trade approach toward its regional partners, specifically regarding trade facilitation and rules of origin. This is because regional partners may become more dependent on South Africa as they are shut out of EU markets and lose foreign direct investment (FDI) to CEE countries.
• The briefing recommends that South Africa use quantitative analysis and business community insights to target trade missions to CEE countries. These markets are viewed as potential 'stepping stones' into the wider EU market due to expected high economic growth and FDI inflows.
• The authors suggest that South Africa should study the EU's institutional management of its enlargement process to derive lessons for the potential expansion of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).

APA

Draper, P., & Mills, G. (2004). The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter, and Greg Mills. The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2004. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |last2=Mills |first2=Greg |title=The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2004 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2004implications, author = {Draper, Peter and Mills, Greg}, title = {{The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2004}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }