The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy

The document analyzes how EU enlargement affects South Africa's trade positioning, particularly within the WTO and regarding regional African integration. It argues that while enlargement may create short-term opportunities for tariff liberalization, it is likely to strengthen support for the Common Agricultural Policy's domestic subsidies. The authors recommend that South Africa maintain ambition on domestic support in WTO negotiations, pursue a more liberal trade approach toward its own region, and study the EU's enlargement process to inform potential SACU expansion.

• EU enlargement is expected to increase support for maintaining the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), specifically its domestic support component, in the medium-term. This suggests that G20 and Cairns group proposals for agricultural liberalization should be less ambitious regarding domestic support, although a short-term window for tariff liberalization may exist.
• The cohesion of the ACP/G90 grouping is likely to diminish over time due to EU enlargement and the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations. This may lead to a more realistic approach to WTO negotiations in the medium-term, allowing South Africa to maintain ambitious industrial tariff liberalization proposals.
• EU expansion may provoke a more aggressive US approach to securing external trade preferences in Asia, Latin America (via the FTAA), and select African countries. This dynamic could potentially provide the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) with increased leverage during its FTA negotiations with the US.
• The EU's 'everything but institutions' initiative for North Africa may further decouple North Africa from sub-Saharan Africa, potentially distracting the EU from South Africa's regional concerns and impacting African Union (AU) integration processes.
• Static quantitative analysis suggests that EU enlargement will not necessitate compensation for South Africa and may result in minor trade gains, though these should be supplemented by business community input regarding FDI inflows into accession countries.
• Increased competition for FDI from EU accession countries, as well as China, India, and Brazil, may make the South African region less attractive for investment. Consequently, South Africa should adopt a more liberal approach toward regional partners and consider expanding the SACU customs union.

APA

Draper, P., & Mills, G. (2004). The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter, and Greg Mills. The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2004. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |last2=Mills |first2=Greg |title=The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2004 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2004implications, author = {Draper, Peter and Mills, Greg}, title = {{The Implications of EU Enlargement from 1525 for South Africas Trade Strategy}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2004}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/Trade-Briefing-7final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }