Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the state of the multilateral trading system following the 2008–10 global financial crisis. It argues that a multilateral impasse is likely to persist due to a lack of leadership from the US and China, suggesting that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) must shift toward plurilateral agreements to remain relevant. The author highlights the specific challenges for South Africa, which faces a 'negotiating stretch' as it attempts to represent broader African interests while managing its own role as an emerging middle power.

• The multilateral trading system is facing a period of impasse and potential deepening of deadlock because the US is increasingly unwilling to bear the costs of maintaining the system and China is unwilling to assume a leadership role in the short to medium term.
• The WTO's negotiating mechanism is likely to shift toward plurilateral agreements among like-minded members to avoid the blocking power of the broader membership, provided these are governed by a 'code of principles' to protect the interests of the wider membership.
• Potential areas for new plurilateral agreements include transparency in government procurement, financial services, and investment, while the environment and exchange rates may require broader membership negotiations.
• South Africa faces a significant 'negotiating stretch' because it is viewed as representing African interests, meaning its negotiating resources must cover more than just its own national self-interest since many poor African countries lack the capacity to engage in these widening trade fronts.
• The author recommends that the South African government proactively identify core priorities, establish intra-government coordination forums for economic policy, and build alliances with other middle powers and emerging middle powers.
• Global economic shifts, specifically the move of economic power from the West to the East led by China's manufacturing ascent and the rise of India and Brazil, are driving structural adjustments and tensions in the global trading system.

APA

Draper, P. (2010). Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter. Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2010. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |title=Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2010 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2010whither, author = {Draper, Peter}, title = {{Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }