Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa

The document argues that the multilateral trading system is facing a period of impasse due to shifting global economic power and a lack of leadership from the US and EU. It suggests that the WTO's future lies in plurilateral agreements governed by a specific code of conduct to avoid marginalising poorer members. For South Africa, this shift necessitates a proactive strategy to manage stretched negotiating capacities and the formation of strategic alliances with other middle powers to protect African interests.

• The multilateral trading system is experiencing an impasse driven by a shift in economic power from the West to the East, specifically the rapid ascent of China and the growth of India and Brazil.
• The 2008–10 global financial crisis has increased protectionist pressures, including 'buy local' stimulus packages and tariff increases, which the WTO has so far helped constrain.
• A lack of political leadership from the US and EU is hindering the multilateral system; the US is constrained by domestic challenges and a diminishing willingness to underwrite system costs, while the EU is limited by its unwillingness to open agricultural markets.
• The author proposes that the WTO's negotiating mechanism should transition toward plurilateral agreements among like-minded members, governed by a 'code of principles' to ensure voluntary membership and protect the interests of the broader membership.
• Potential areas for new plurilateral agreements include transparency in government procurement, financial services, and investment, while issues like the environment and exchange rates may require broader membership negotiations.
• South Africa faces significant 'negotiating stretch' because it is expected to represent broader African interests while managing its own national priorities in an increasingly complex web of plurilateral and regional talks.
• To navigate this environment, the South African government must identify core priorities, coordinate internal economic policy leadership, and build alliances with other emerging middle powers.

APA

Draper, P. (2010). Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter. Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2010. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |title=Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2010 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2010whither, author = {Draper, Peter}, title = {{Whither the Multilateral Trading System? Implications for (South) Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Occasional-Paper-64.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }